3 ms·
This is pure clickbait and here is why. In the debate over masks, the anti-mask side always forgets that this epidemic is multiplicative i.e. it each person spr
by haltingproblem 6y ago
This is pure clickbait and here is why. In the debate over masks, the anti-mask side always forgets that this epidemic is multiplicative i.e. it each person spreads it to multiple people (R0 > 1).
Even a marginally effective mask that cuts infection by 30% will greatly bend the curve. How? A 30% effective mask (where 100% is full hazmat outfit) does not mean 30% fewer cases. It could mean greater than 30% or even 90% fewer cases. The same non-linearities (read: exponential) that work for virus spread also help in the other direction. [1]
Social distancing is expensive and we need it. Social distancing requires the shutdown of large parts of our economy and changing the way we live. Masks are a relatively minor inconvenience and one whose effectiveness, no matter how marginal, we can not afford to ignore.
Do science all you want, and that blog post is hardly science, but do it with an ethical and moral responsibility to not turn people away from masks. Turning people away from masks is akin to telling them the virus is not contagious or fatal.
References:
[1] https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1249296844712218624 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1249296844712218624
- jatone 6y agothe point of the article wasn't to say don't wear a mask. the point was that it is dangerous to tell people a mask is 90% effective when its not. lying about the effectiveness WILL cause people will take risks they shouldn't making the situation worse. being honest about the masks effectiveness and explain why it still helps is the best thing we can do.