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There is very substantial evidence of that. A random sample was taken of 700 inhabitants in Stockholm, which came in at 2.5% positive at that time. Based on tha

There is very substantial evidence of that. A random sample was taken of 700 inhabitants in Stockholm, which came in at 2.5% positive at that time. Based on that, they model that around 600 000 people have been infected. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/s/skattning-av-peakdag-och-antal-infekterade-i-covid-19-utbrottet-i-stockholms-lan-februari-april-2020/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publ...

microtherion 6y ago
600000 people is 6% of the Swedish population. So Sweden would be maybe... 10% of the way to herd immunity? That does not really count as close in my book.
- oxymoron 6y ago
  That estimate is exclusively for Stockholm which is ahead of the rest of Sweden. Stockholm has ~2 million inhabitants, so that’s 25%+. That said, the key aspect is of course whether the intensive care units can keep up with the needs. So far, that has been true for Stockholm, which ptobably means that the measures are adequate for Swedish circumstances. Notably, the number of cases for Stockholm is projected to have peaked around April 10th.
  - microtherion 6y ago
    I stand corrected regarding their prediction. I don't understand much Swedish, so I could not follow their model. But it appears to rely on an extrapolation of data from late March. Do they include any cross-validation of the model with current data? April 9, 10, 11: 200, 148, 240 new cases were reported in Stockholm April 21, 22, 23: 163, 289, 281 new cases were reported (and might still be subject to upward revision) As we both agree, reported cases is a fairly uncertain metric, but I don't see a peak on April 10. Do you? https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa?fbclid=IwAR0cwMTc67meGq7bDJ63eph18UZ4LqgsOTYJK-msWNHCfp8aEp5WWQJaqeM https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6...
    - oxymoron 6y ago
      The model is calibrated based on the study from late march, which randomly sampled 700 individuals in Stockholm. From that they can infer the number of infected people at that point in time. They use two separate variables to track unknown infections and known infections (hospitalizations), so from that study and hospital data they get a baseline. They can then verify how the model holds up for the group of hospitalized cases. There are charts towards the end of the paper which shows the real data plotted compared to the predictions, with confidence intervalls. The data is obviously very noisy, but it seems to track reasonably well, and is expected to taper of only slowly. The expected decline is not by any means drastic.

microtherion 6y ago

600000 people is 6% of the Swedish population. So Sweden would be maybe... 10% of the way to herd immunity? That does not really count as close in my book.

oxymoron 6y ago
That estimate is exclusively for Stockholm which is ahead of the rest of Sweden. Stockholm has ~2 million inhabitants, so that’s 25%+. That said, the key aspect is of course whether the intensive care units can keep up with the needs. So far, that has been true for Stockholm, which ptobably means that the measures are adequate for Swedish circumstances. Notably, the number of cases for Stockholm is projected to have peaked around April 10th.
- microtherion 6y ago
  I stand corrected regarding their prediction. I don't understand much Swedish, so I could not follow their model. But it appears to rely on an extrapolation of data from late March. Do they include any cross-validation of the model with current data? April 9, 10, 11: 200, 148, 240 new cases were reported in Stockholm April 21, 22, 23: 163, 289, 281 new cases were reported (and might still be subject to upward revision) As we both agree, reported cases is a fairly uncertain metric, but I don't see a peak on April 10. Do you? https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa?fbclid=IwAR0cwMTc67meGq7bDJ63eph18UZ4LqgsOTYJK-msWNHCfp8aEp5WWQJaqeM https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6...
  - oxymoron 6y ago
    The model is calibrated based on the study from late march, which randomly sampled 700 individuals in Stockholm. From that they can infer the number of infected people at that point in time. They use two separate variables to track unknown infections and known infections (hospitalizations), so from that study and hospital data they get a baseline. They can then verify how the model holds up for the group of hospitalized cases. There are charts towards the end of the paper which shows the real data plotted compared to the predictions, with confidence intervalls. The data is obviously very noisy, but it seems to track reasonably well, and is expected to taper of only slowly. The expected decline is not by any means drastic.