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I think if what we are discussing is population growth we should talk about the global data not that of individual countries. Whether some countries population
by nfc 6y ago
I think if what we are discussing is population growth we should talk about the global data not that of individual countries. Whether some countries population is increasing or not is a different question.
I looked at this source https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate which seems to imply that globally the number of children per woman is 2.5 so still much higher than the replacement rate (of course we'd have to talk about more than fertility rate to have a real discussion).
As far as I understand the projections about population stabilization are based on predictions of a reduction of children per woman in countries where this is still very high. It's possible that these predictions are right but they are just that, predictions.
As an aside, I think we should dedicate a bit more effort to try to understand the implications of both possibilities and a bit less to try to assert as certain what is just a prediction.
This is not obviously not only a reply to the parent's point, I just found myself writing a longer reply than expected ;)
- mrkstu 6y agoExcept it has consistently been reducing everywhere- its just that some continents started much higher and will take longer to get down to ~2 or below.
- nfc 6y agoI'm not saying it will not happen, there are certainly clues pointing out in that direction so no need for "except" :). On the other hand there are scenarios compatible with the data you are mentioning that do not lead to population stabilization. For example. Let's say that while the majority of the population (Population A) is reducing its fertility rate a subpopulation (Population B) keeps it at a higher rate. Let's suppose that both populations maintain this behavior for several generations. In this case we would see an initial reduction in fertility rate not leading to a stabilization of the population Will this happen?, I don't know. What I'm saying is that I feel in these discussions often people place too much faith on their preferred extrapolations ;)