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On the other hand there are much fewer traffic accidents, much less pollution and people aren't going to bars and getting into fights. So I'm not sure if the ne

On the other hand there are much fewer traffic accidents, much less pollution and people aren't going to bars and getting into fights. So I'm not sure if the net effect of the lockdown on mortality is actually expected to be positive or negative.

duckmysick 6y ago
> much less pollution Unless the pollution was incredibly concentrated, wouldn't the effects show much later?
- dx034 6y ago
  Yes, maybe fewer asthma cases and related deaths over the next decades but not sure if a few months of less pollution are sufficient.
  - 8bitsrule 6y ago
    Speaking of pollution: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-pollution-may-be-key-contributor-to-covid-19-deaths-study https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-poll... Title: Strong correlation between Covid deaths and high air pollution "Research shows almost 80% of deaths across four countries were in most polluted regions" Study: 'Assessing nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels as a contributing factor to coronavirus (COVID-19) fatality' https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138605 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138605
    - bayesian_horse 6y ago
      I haven't read those studies but I do hope they controlled for population density...
ekianjo 6y ago
> So I'm not sure if the net effect of the lockdown on mortality is actually expected to be positive or negative. Wouldn't this kind of graphs precisely answer the question, since deaths are not just related to COVID19 only?
- DangerousPie 6y ago
  No, because you don't know how many of these deaths are COVID19-related deaths that just weren't counted in the official figures for some reason.
- jon-v 6y ago
  The main effect we expect to see on excess mortality is not from the lockdown, but from the overloading of the health care systems.
bayesian_horse 6y ago
I'm sure the net effect is less people dying, of the pandemic or not, than without the lockdowns.

duckmysick 6y ago

> much less pollution Unless the pollution was incredibly concentrated, wouldn't the effects show much later?

dx034 6y ago
Yes, maybe fewer asthma cases and related deaths over the next decades but not sure if a few months of less pollution are sufficient.
- 8bitsrule 6y ago
  Speaking of pollution: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-pollution-may-be-key-contributor-to-covid-19-deaths-study https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-poll... Title: Strong correlation between Covid deaths and high air pollution "Research shows almost 80% of deaths across four countries were in most polluted regions" Study: 'Assessing nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels as a contributing factor to coronavirus (COVID-19) fatality' https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138605 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138605
  - bayesian_horse 6y ago
    I haven't read those studies but I do hope they controlled for population density...

ekianjo 6y ago

> So I'm not sure if the net effect of the lockdown on mortality is actually expected to be positive or negative. Wouldn't this kind of graphs precisely answer the question, since deaths are not just related to COVID19 only?

DangerousPie 6y ago
No, because you don't know how many of these deaths are COVID19-related deaths that just weren't counted in the official figures for some reason.
jon-v 6y ago
The main effect we expect to see on excess mortality is not from the lockdown, but from the overloading of the health care systems.

bayesian_horse 6y ago

I'm sure the net effect is less people dying, of the pandemic or not, than without the lockdowns.