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These kind of graphs, while useful, still miss a point. My experience in Spain is that there are a some hotspots like Madrid where hospitals and morgues are col

These kind of graphs, while useful, still miss a point. My experience in Spain is that there are a some hotspots like Madrid where hospitals and morgues are collapsed but other cities/villages, which have the same lockdown didn't have so many infected people per capita, so they will actually have probably the same or less mortality rates. The country on itself looks bad, but in the hotspots is terrible

cjfd 6y ago
In my country in places where there are fewer corona patients the hospitals used to be taking over IC patients from places where there are more. And now the total number of corona patients admitted to the hospital has been declining for about a month so that looks pretty good.
pjcv 6y ago
The data here seems to corroborate this: https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/MoMo/Paginas/Informes-MoMo-2020.aspx https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPu... It would be interesting to see if previous years exhibited similar hotspots.
thu2111 6y ago
But these graphs don't tell a story of collapse. Or perhaps they do but no worse than Spain normally experiences? Spanish excess mortality has peaked already at only slightly above what it peaked at in 2017. Remember that everything we think we know about collapsed hotspots comes via the media. For every anecdote there are other anecdotes telling the opposite. The new EuroMOMO site is really much, much better than before (kudos to whoever did that upgrade if you're reading this!). Usefully it now shows cumulative deaths. Compared to 2018 we still have had fewer deaths so far this year even with COVID included. That's staggering. It'll probably change soon given the slope of the graph, but that's really worth thinking about. So far fewer people have died than normal in 2020 than by this time in 2018.
- aarroyoc 6y ago
  That's what I'm saying. These graphs are too broad for a country because the numbers change a lot between cities. I'm expecting that some cities even report less deaths because of the lockdown (less risky activities, less traffic accidents, less labour accidents,...). So even if the numbers look similar to the ones of previous years, it is not distributed as other years.

cjfd 6y ago

In my country in places where there are fewer corona patients the hospitals used to be taking over IC patients from places where there are more. And now the total number of corona patients admitted to the hospital has been declining for about a month so that looks pretty good.

pjcv 6y ago

The data here seems to corroborate this: https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/MoMo/Paginas/Informes-MoMo-2020.aspx https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPu... It would be interesting to see if previous years exhibited similar hotspots.

thu2111 6y ago

But these graphs don't tell a story of collapse. Or perhaps they do but no worse than Spain normally experiences? Spanish excess mortality has peaked already at only slightly above what it peaked at in 2017. Remember that everything we think we know about collapsed hotspots comes via the media. For every anecdote there are other anecdotes telling the opposite. The new EuroMOMO site is really much, much better than before (kudos to whoever did that upgrade if you're reading this!). Usefully it now shows cumulative deaths. Compared to 2018 we still have had fewer deaths so far this year even with COVID included. That's staggering. It'll probably change soon given the slope of the graph, but that's really worth thinking about. So far fewer people have died than normal in 2020 than by this time in 2018.

aarroyoc 6y ago
That's what I'm saying. These graphs are too broad for a country because the numbers change a lot between cities. I'm expecting that some cities even report less deaths because of the lockdown (less risky activities, less traffic accidents, less labour accidents,...). So even if the numbers look similar to the ones of previous years, it is not distributed as other years.