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When comparing figures between previous years and 2020 one has to keep in mind that the current excess mortality is despite people adopting unprecedented behavi

by flr03 6y ago

When comparing figures between previous years and 2020 one has to keep in mind that the current excess mortality is despite people adopting unprecedented behaviours like strict social distancing, regular hands cleaning etc. That put things into perspective.

bayesian_horse 6y ago
Some excess mortality might even be caused by such measures. I feel like I would have a much higher threshold before looking for (Covid-unrelated) medical help. Suicides should be on the uptick. Other things like accidents should go down. I'm not saying the measures and restrictions aren't necessary, just that there are some costs associated. Those deaths aren't really "Covid-19" fatalities even though they are indirectly caused by the pandemic.
- icebraining 6y ago
  > I feel like I would have a much higher threshold before looking for (Covid-unrelated) medical help. In fact, our health authorities have insisted for people to come to the ER, because apparently the number of non-covid emergencies (like strokes) is unreasonably low.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    To put that in context, in the UK it appears about half the excess mortality doesn't mention COVID-19 on the death certificate at all. Of the half that does, this is basically a grep over the contents, so "not COVID-19 related" would fall into that bucket. Of the certificates where the disease is definitely implicated, that still doesn't mean someone died because of the virus, only that the person might have been infected at the time of death. Might, because no test is required to merely mention it on a death certificate. At time of death, because this disease targets the old and weak so much, that very often it's unclear how a cause of death should be classified - in a way it was just someone's time to go. However, the UK made COVID-19 a notifiable disease, so it gets reported to the government in every case over and above other causes of death. Thus for the UK we can safely say that more people are being killed because of the lockdown than because of COVID, which is pretty shocking. This can be hard to see because UK excess mortality has gone far above the flu seasons of the past 5 years. But this is a bit misleading. It appears that the UK basically didn't have a flu season in 2017: excess mortality didn't go outside normal variance. Whereas in the rest of Europe 2017 saw a bad-ish flu season, which COVID so far has merely matched in terms of deaths.
- onetimemanytime 6y ago
  Many aren't going to doctor visits, aren't exercising, are eating more etc etc. It all adds up. I guess Covid is like a really, really bad flu season showing up, in addition to the existing one. So when all is done. we'll really see. Flu does kill a lot of old and infirm people
  - ithkuil 6y ago
    I can imagine some of the effects of all this to show up much later
    - bayesian_horse 6y ago
      For example school children are losing months of school education, and they aren't going to get it back. Studies in developing countries have shown every extra month to significantly improve children's final IQ and lifetime earnings.
  - egman_ekki 6y ago
    If you look at the cumulative distribution, around week 11 is where things started and the peak is at week 14, during week 16 the slope is already less steep. I think it would be quite remarkable if people managed to die from 5 weeks of eating at home without exercise.
- gpderetta 6y ago
  That could be. On the other hands some countries that are in lockdown like Germany (although maybe not as strict as some other european states) are seeing no excess mortality at all, which makes the hypothesis unlikely.
- DangerousPie 6y ago
  On the other hand there are much fewer traffic accidents, much less pollution and people aren't going to bars and getting into fights. So I'm not sure if the net effect of the lockdown on mortality is actually expected to be positive or negative.
  - duckmysick 6y ago
    > much less pollution Unless the pollution was incredibly concentrated, wouldn't the effects show much later?
    - dx034 6y ago
      Yes, maybe fewer asthma cases and related deaths over the next decades but not sure if a few months of less pollution are sufficient.
      - 8bitsrule 6y ago
        Speaking of pollution: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-pollution-may-be-key-contributor-to-covid-19-deaths-study https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-poll... Title: Strong correlation between Covid deaths and high air pollution "Research shows almost 80% of deaths across four countries were in most polluted regions" Study: 'Assessing nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels as a contributing factor to coronavirus (COVID-19) fatality' https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138605 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138605
        bayesian_horse 6y ago
        I haven't read those studies but I do hope they controlled for population density...
  - ekianjo 6y ago
    > So I'm not sure if the net effect of the lockdown on mortality is actually expected to be positive or negative. Wouldn't this kind of graphs precisely answer the question, since deaths are not just related to COVID19 only?
- ekianjo 6y ago
  > Suicides should be on the uptick. could go both ways really. If you are stuck at home with your old folks (probably the case for young people at risk of suicide right now), much less chance to commit suicide with total privacy in the current circumstances. Also, there's usually less suicides when things go really bad in the society at large, because it puts things in perspective more than any other time in terms of human suffering.
  - bryanrasmussen 6y ago
    Also I suppose if you are suffering through a pandemic and are suicidal your first thought would probably be hopefully it will all be over soon and I don't have to do anything but be unlucky.
    - bayesian_horse 6y ago
      That's not how suicidal ideation works, unfortunately.
      - bryanrasmussen 6y ago
        I'm not sure it doesn't, at least at some times for some people, given my own experiences with it.
aquadrop 6y ago
Would also be nice if there was cause of death data, so you could filter out stuff like car crashes, murders, accidental falls etc.
danmaz74 6y ago
Even more impactful, most people are staying at home, meaning fewer accidents in the streets and workplaces.
kryptiskt 6y ago
It could cause extra death because people are reluctant to seek help for other ailments, for example the number of people coming to ER with heart attacks have decreased drastically in Sweden (-25% between February 24 and April 5).
tasuki 6y ago
Also keep in mind the graph isn't zero-based which makes it seem worse than it is. It's 73k compared to 52k last year, so about 40% worse than last year, not 100% as the graph might make one think.
- egman_ekki 6y ago
  I think there was a correction since then. The peak is at 86k now.

by flr03 6y ago

bayesian_horse 6y ago

Some excess mortality might even be caused by such measures. I feel like I would have a much higher threshold before looking for (Covid-unrelated) medical help. Suicides should be on the uptick. Other things like accidents should go down. I'm not saying the measures and restrictions aren't necessary, just that there are some costs associated. Those deaths aren't really "Covid-19" fatalities even though they are indirectly caused by the pandemic.

icebraining 6y ago
> I feel like I would have a much higher threshold before looking for (Covid-unrelated) medical help. In fact, our health authorities have insisted for people to come to the ER, because apparently the number of non-covid emergencies (like strokes) is unreasonably low.
- thu2111 6y ago
  To put that in context, in the UK it appears about half the excess mortality doesn't mention COVID-19 on the death certificate at all. Of the half that does, this is basically a grep over the contents, so "not COVID-19 related" would fall into that bucket. Of the certificates where the disease is definitely implicated, that still doesn't mean someone died because of the virus, only that the person might have been infected at the time of death. Might, because no test is required to merely mention it on a death certificate. At time of death, because this disease targets the old and weak so much, that very often it's unclear how a cause of death should be classified - in a way it was just someone's time to go. However, the UK made COVID-19 a notifiable disease, so it gets reported to the government in every case over and above other causes of death. Thus for the UK we can safely say that more people are being killed because of the lockdown than because of COVID, which is pretty shocking. This can be hard to see because UK excess mortality has gone far above the flu seasons of the past 5 years. But this is a bit misleading. It appears that the UK basically didn't have a flu season in 2017: excess mortality didn't go outside normal variance. Whereas in the rest of Europe 2017 saw a bad-ish flu season, which COVID so far has merely matched in terms of deaths.
onetimemanytime 6y ago
Many aren't going to doctor visits, aren't exercising, are eating more etc etc. It all adds up. I guess Covid is like a really, really bad flu season showing up, in addition to the existing one. So when all is done. we'll really see. Flu does kill a lot of old and infirm people
- ithkuil 6y ago
  I can imagine some of the effects of all this to show up much later
  - bayesian_horse 6y ago
    For example school children are losing months of school education, and they aren't going to get it back. Studies in developing countries have shown every extra month to significantly improve children's final IQ and lifetime earnings.
- egman_ekki 6y ago
  If you look at the cumulative distribution, around week 11 is where things started and the peak is at week 14, during week 16 the slope is already less steep. I think it would be quite remarkable if people managed to die from 5 weeks of eating at home without exercise.
gpderetta 6y ago
That could be. On the other hands some countries that are in lockdown like Germany (although maybe not as strict as some other european states) are seeing no excess mortality at all, which makes the hypothesis unlikely.
DangerousPie 6y ago
On the other hand there are much fewer traffic accidents, much less pollution and people aren't going to bars and getting into fights. So I'm not sure if the net effect of the lockdown on mortality is actually expected to be positive or negative.
- duckmysick 6y ago
  > much less pollution Unless the pollution was incredibly concentrated, wouldn't the effects show much later?
  - dx034 6y ago
    Yes, maybe fewer asthma cases and related deaths over the next decades but not sure if a few months of less pollution are sufficient.
    - 8bitsrule 6y ago
      Speaking of pollution: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-pollution-may-be-key-contributor-to-covid-19-deaths-study https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-poll... Title: Strong correlation between Covid deaths and high air pollution "Research shows almost 80% of deaths across four countries were in most polluted regions" Study: 'Assessing nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels as a contributing factor to coronavirus (COVID-19) fatality' https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138605 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138605
      - bayesian_horse 6y ago
        I haven't read those studies but I do hope they controlled for population density...
- ekianjo 6y ago
  > So I'm not sure if the net effect of the lockdown on mortality is actually expected to be positive or negative. Wouldn't this kind of graphs precisely answer the question, since deaths are not just related to COVID19 only?
ekianjo 6y ago
> Suicides should be on the uptick. could go both ways really. If you are stuck at home with your old folks (probably the case for young people at risk of suicide right now), much less chance to commit suicide with total privacy in the current circumstances. Also, there's usually less suicides when things go really bad in the society at large, because it puts things in perspective more than any other time in terms of human suffering.
- bryanrasmussen 6y ago
  Also I suppose if you are suffering through a pandemic and are suicidal your first thought would probably be hopefully it will all be over soon and I don't have to do anything but be unlucky.
  - bayesian_horse 6y ago
    That's not how suicidal ideation works, unfortunately.
    - bryanrasmussen 6y ago
      I'm not sure it doesn't, at least at some times for some people, given my own experiences with it.

aquadrop 6y ago

Would also be nice if there was cause of death data, so you could filter out stuff like car crashes, murders, accidental falls etc.

danmaz74 6y ago

Even more impactful, most people are staying at home, meaning fewer accidents in the streets and workplaces.

kryptiskt 6y ago

It could cause extra death because people are reluctant to seek help for other ailments, for example the number of people coming to ER with heart attacks have decreased drastically in Sweden (-25% between February 24 and April 5).

tasuki 6y ago

Also keep in mind the graph isn't zero-based which makes it seem worse than it is. It's 73k compared to 52k last year, so about 40% worse than last year, not 100% as the graph might make one think.

egman_ekki 6y ago
I think there was a correction since then. The peak is at 86k now.