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The biggest problem looking at these tests is that they are completely on the opposite side compared to the mortality estimated using South Korea numbers. We kn

The biggest problem looking at these tests is that they are completely on the opposite side compared to the mortality estimated using South Korea numbers. We know for a fact that South Koreans tracked pretty much every single person with covid given that their new cases are increasing by a single digit per day. We know that as of today they have 10708 cases and 240 deaths, with still 1967 active cases. This give us a lower bound for the mortality at 2.2%. I think this is the best way to estimate mortality and I think that a lot of studies are giving numbers for the infected that are just out of touch with reality. I remember an Oxford study that was saying that half the UK was infected at the beginning of April. Those numbers were simply insane. I still don’t have a perfect explanation why the mortality numbers from the antibody tests seem so low, but I think that the accuracy of these tests or the way they select the people to be tested may be involved. Do you see any flaw in using South Korea numbers to calculate the mortality?

FiberBundle 7y ago
South Korea apparently has conducted 11500 tests/ 1m population. It's ridiculous to claim that they detected every covid case and to suggest that their cfr is a lower bound for the ifr.
- tigershark 7y ago
  They tested everyone that was in contact with a reported case, I never claimed that they tested the whole population. How do you explain that they are showing only a single digit increase of new cases per day if, as you assert, there is a huge number of unaccounted cases?
  - FiberBundle 7y ago
    Probably by implementing strict quarantine measures at the start of the pandemic. They likely had many undetected cases in the beginning as well, the quarantine reduced the pool of infected people a lot. Given that the number of infected people is relatively low right now, their testing capacity probably allows for fairly good tracing of cases, which is one of the primary reasons why their numbers remain low, in addition to factors such as social distancing and high hygiene standards. But the large number of undetected cases in the beginning would would reduce the ifr significantly.

FiberBundle 7y ago

South Korea apparently has conducted 11500 tests/ 1m population. It's ridiculous to claim that they detected every covid case and to suggest that their cfr is a lower bound for the ifr.

tigershark 7y ago
They tested everyone that was in contact with a reported case, I never claimed that they tested the whole population. How do you explain that they are showing only a single digit increase of new cases per day if, as you assert, there is a huge number of unaccounted cases?
- FiberBundle 7y ago
  Probably by implementing strict quarantine measures at the start of the pandemic. They likely had many undetected cases in the beginning as well, the quarantine reduced the pool of infected people a lot. Given that the number of infected people is relatively low right now, their testing capacity probably allows for fairly good tracing of cases, which is one of the primary reasons why their numbers remain low, in addition to factors such as social distancing and high hygiene standards. But the large number of undetected cases in the beginning would would reduce the ifr significantly.