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It's very much luck and you should really start to believe it. Even if you're not an expert on stocks, that Tesla rose within a few weeks from 300 to 1000, the

It's very much luck and you should really start to believe it. Even if you're not an expert on stocks, that Tesla rose within a few weeks from 300 to 1000, then went back to 400 and currently stands at 700 - so halving and doubling value within a few weeks - has absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals or things anyone understands, want 100% with speculation. I've made some money on the market, including with Tesla, but I'd never put this down to anything other than luck. The forces that shape the market are much bigger than any of us normal humans can even begin to grasp, much less 'understand'.

maxharris 6y ago
It's not luck. I have a degree in molecular biology, and I took a lot of elective courses in immunology, oncology, virology. I worked in a research lab on HIV vaccine for two years after undergrad before I switched back to software engineering. So I was able to keep a cooler head about the virus than most, which enabled me to buy intelligently. I worked damn hard to earn that degree and in my time in the lab. I was a twitchy premed student that needed every grade to be perfect. NONE of the effort I poured into those six years of my life was luck. It was pure sweat. In the immediate future, I expect that the dip in advertising will cause Q1 earnings from Google and Facebook to be lower than expected. As the Fed continues to inflate stocks, this will cause a lot more buying of TSLA and AAPL. In the 2020s, Tesla will continue to soar because: 1) they have a huge lead in battery tech. they're about to announce that they've achieved the $100/kWh mark, which will let them sell electric cars that go as far as gas ones but don't cost more. 2) batteries are crucial for amazing tech like the emerging eVTOL scene. it's possible Tesla may enter that space and dominate it, because batteries determine everything there, too. in the meantime, I bought some shares of eHang (Chinese company, listed on the Nasdaq under EH) 3) they have a huge lead in autonomous driving. LiDAR is a dead-end, and they're ahead of everyone else there, too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx7BXih7zx8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx7BXih7zx8 4) demand is not a problem at all, especially in China (where the latest new factory is). demand for iPhones was just fine in 2008-2009! remember Ballmer reacting with, "$600 for a phone!?" when he was asked about the iPhone in 2007? 5) they now sell car insurance. they're using all the data collected by their cars to offer significantly lower rates to customers 6) they're going to get into home HVAC, which will integrate beautifully with the Powerwall and solar roof products. I have been looking at buying a cheap off-grid lot up in the mountains to build a home on (when the price is right!), and I absolutely will buy that and avoid paying significant costs to get the lot hooked up to the grid. 7) their competitors will continue to fail to invest in EVs, even though their futures depend on it. this is because they are loaded up with tons of debt, while Tesla has a lot less 8) the site for Gigafactory Berlin has been fully cleared, and it will be under construction very soon. there's another factory coming in the US later this year. 9) I should at least mention the new products! Model Y is a definite hit, and it's clear that the Cybertruck will be! the new semi was delayed only because they simply can't produce enough batteries for it and the Model Y at the moment. that's gonna change! 10) they have a new analyst covering them at Goldman, and he's bullish. I expect TSLA to join the S&P 500 this year, which will trigger a massive wave of institutional buying. I think ARK Invest has it right. $24k/share by 2024. Out of the scenarios they give, I think their middle-range estimate of $3.4k/share by 2024 is my worst-case. Tesla is $54.74% of my portfolio right now, and if I could go back to March and do it all over again, I'd make it 100%. If you want to keep in touch and lord it over me when I go bankrupt, I'm maxharris9 on Twitter.
maxharris 6y ago
Regarding your point about TSLA's volatility, I think it would help to understand the relationship between the stock market and the economy. Stock prices go up when new information is better than existing expectations and down when it is worse. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0

maxharris 6y ago

It's not luck. I have a degree in molecular biology, and I took a lot of elective courses in immunology, oncology, virology. I worked in a research lab on HIV vaccine for two years after undergrad before I switched back to software engineering. So I was able to keep a cooler head about the virus than most, which enabled me to buy intelligently. I worked damn hard to earn that degree and in my time in the lab. I was a twitchy premed student that needed every grade to be perfect. NONE of the effort I poured into those six years of my life was luck. It was pure sweat. In the immediate future, I expect that the dip in advertising will cause Q1 earnings from Google and Facebook to be lower than expected. As the Fed continues to inflate stocks, this will cause a lot more buying of TSLA and AAPL. In the 2020s, Tesla will continue to soar because: 1) they have a huge lead in battery tech. they're about to announce that they've achieved the $100/kWh mark, which will let them sell electric cars that go as far as gas ones but don't cost more. 2) batteries are crucial for amazing tech like the emerging eVTOL scene. it's possible Tesla may enter that space and dominate it, because batteries determine everything there, too. in the meantime, I bought some shares of eHang (Chinese company, listed on the Nasdaq under EH) 3) they have a huge lead in autonomous driving. LiDAR is a dead-end, and they're ahead of everyone else there, too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx7BXih7zx8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx7BXih7zx8 4) demand is not a problem at all, especially in China (where the latest new factory is). demand for iPhones was just fine in 2008-2009! remember Ballmer reacting with, "$600 for a phone!?" when he was asked about the iPhone in 2007? 5) they now sell car insurance. they're using all the data collected by their cars to offer significantly lower rates to customers 6) they're going to get into home HVAC, which will integrate beautifully with the Powerwall and solar roof products. I have been looking at buying a cheap off-grid lot up in the mountains to build a home on (when the price is right!), and I absolutely will buy that and avoid paying significant costs to get the lot hooked up to the grid. 7) their competitors will continue to fail to invest in EVs, even though their futures depend on it. this is because they are loaded up with tons of debt, while Tesla has a lot less 8) the site for Gigafactory Berlin has been fully cleared, and it will be under construction very soon. there's another factory coming in the US later this year. 9) I should at least mention the new products! Model Y is a definite hit, and it's clear that the Cybertruck will be! the new semi was delayed only because they simply can't produce enough batteries for it and the Model Y at the moment. that's gonna change! 10) they have a new analyst covering them at Goldman, and he's bullish. I expect TSLA to join the S&P 500 this year, which will trigger a massive wave of institutional buying. I think ARK Invest has it right. $24k/share by 2024. Out of the scenarios they give, I think their middle-range estimate of $3.4k/share by 2024 is my worst-case. Tesla is $54.74% of my portfolio right now, and if I could go back to March and do it all over again, I'd make it 100%. If you want to keep in touch and lord it over me when I go bankrupt, I'm maxharris9 on Twitter.

maxharris 6y ago

Regarding your point about TSLA's volatility, I think it would help to understand the relationship between the stock market and the economy. Stock prices go up when new information is better than existing expectations and down when it is worse. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0