Your 0.7-1% fatality rate is not in line with current figures, which peg it closer to 0.35%. I've been rounding up to 0.5% for the US to account for the poor st

Your 0.7-1% fatality rate is not in line with current figures, which peg it closer to 0.35%. I've been rounding up to 0.5% for the US to account for the poor state of health here. The rest of your napkin math is completely absurd and is just you progressively multiplying an arbitrary number until you magically hit that 5% number that you started out with. Funny how that works. You should understand that even the 5% mortality when hospitals are overran is likely to be a huge overestimate for the same reason that we have been overestimated CFR all along. The vast majority of cases are not a big deal and don't need medical care whatsoever. But particularly for those over 70, you get covid and you have like a 1/8 chance of dying. It's that population that does get crushed when hospitals are overwhelmed, but when you run the hospitalization numbers, it's not clear that we would overrun the hospitals. Which is a moot point btw since my actual position is end the lockdown but reinstate policies briefly if we are at the edge of the precipice. Looking at https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/g4tqvk/dutch_antibody_study_of_blood_donors_reveals_3/fnzkn4k/ https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/g4tqvk/dutch_antib... you can see that for every 500 20-29 year olds who get infected, we have one hospitalization. Even 60 year olds only have a 3.4% hospitalization rate, which while high does not support your assertion without a much, much more rigorous analysis. Thanks for the discussion. I'll keep following along.