4 ms·

> New York City had the highest positive rate at 21.2%. The potential good news to come to light is that the death rate may be far lower than some estimates, at

> New York City had the highest positive rate at 21.2%. The potential good news to come to light is that the death rate may be far lower than some estimates, at 0.5%. How do they get to 0.5%? According to NYC data if you include "probable" cases, 15,400 people, or 0.18% of the population, are already dead. Wouldn't that imply 0.9% fatalities if the whole city was infected?

guscost 6y ago
It would not be ruled as a significant factor leading to death in many of those cases, and for the rest, NYC residents might be more at risk due to higher average viral dose (subways). Also there is a lag in IgG antibody production, the test has imperfect sensitivity, and some portion of exposed people may never develop detectable antibodies. Some of these confounding variables are probably baked into the estimate.
- badfrog 6y ago
  > some portion of exposed people may never develop detectable antibodies. Interesting. Would those people still develop some form of immunity/resistance?
  - guscost 6y ago
    I think so, but I'm not an expert. See discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22958660 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22958660
schrodinger 6y ago
Maybe that’s including the large number of deaths that are presumed COVID but weren’t officially confirmed by a test?
kevindong 6y ago
The data that NYC publishes daily is super interesting since it breaks down cases/deaths by race, gender, age (group), and presence of underlying health conditions [1]. The gist of it is that the majority of deaths from COVID-19 were suffered by people who had some kind of other health issue. As of the most recent data (April 22 at 6pm), 61 deaths were from people with no underlying health issues, 7,474 from people known to have underlying health issues, and 2,755 from people with unknown status [0]. The elderly in poor health are much more likely to die than the young in poor health. But when healthy, the elderly have pretty close to the same fatality rate as the young [2]. [0]: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04232020-1.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d... [1]: Bottom of this page: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page [2]: Cross reference this with [0]: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-04232020-1.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...
- anthonypasq 6y ago
  The majority of people are unhealthy

guscost 6y ago

It would not be ruled as a significant factor leading to death in many of those cases, and for the rest, NYC residents might be more at risk due to higher average viral dose (subways). Also there is a lag in IgG antibody production, the test has imperfect sensitivity, and some portion of exposed people may never develop detectable antibodies. Some of these confounding variables are probably baked into the estimate.

badfrog 6y ago
> some portion of exposed people may never develop detectable antibodies. Interesting. Would those people still develop some form of immunity/resistance?
- guscost 6y ago
  I think so, but I'm not an expert. See discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22958660 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22958660

schrodinger 6y ago

Maybe that’s including the large number of deaths that are presumed COVID but weren’t officially confirmed by a test?

kevindong 6y ago

The data that NYC publishes daily is super interesting since it breaks down cases/deaths by race, gender, age (group), and presence of underlying health conditions [1]. The gist of it is that the majority of deaths from COVID-19 were suffered by people who had some kind of other health issue. As of the most recent data (April 22 at 6pm), 61 deaths were from people with no underlying health issues, 7,474 from people known to have underlying health issues, and 2,755 from people with unknown status [0]. The elderly in poor health are much more likely to die than the young in poor health. But when healthy, the elderly have pretty close to the same fatality rate as the young [2]. [0]: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04232020-1.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d... [1]: Bottom of this page: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page [2]: Cross reference this with [0]: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-04232020-1.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...

anthonypasq 6y ago
The majority of people are unhealthy