3 ms·
I think you need to rethink essentially all of your assumptions/math. COVID is not more prevalent than the flu and certainly more than slightly more fatal.
by hcknwscommenter 7y ago
I think you need to rethink essentially all of your assumptions/math. COVID is not more prevalent than the flu and certainly more than slightly more fatal.
- zaroth 7y ago20% infection rates already puts SARS-CoV-2 at higher prevalence than the flu. And we're barely a couple months into the time period of significant spread. Why would you think that SARS-CoV-2 would not be more prevalent than the flu? The fact that we have no natural immunity, combined with how virulent it is, indicates the endpoint infection rate will be significantly higher than an average flu season. "In the U.S., for example, in recent years about 8.3% of the total population get sick from flu each season, a CDC study found; including people who carry the flu virus but show no symptoms, that estimate ranges to up to 20%." The endpoint percentage of fatalities is a multiple of the infection rate times the fatality rate. Both numbers are equally important. We've been hearing the "10% hospitalization" and low-single digit CFR numbers for months. At 20% prevalence, the NYC actually had 1.7 million cases, 36,723 hospitalizations, for a hospitalization rate of ~2.1%.