4 ms·

The CFR will be much higher than the IFR. For example, approximate flu IFR is 0.05%.

Scipio_Afri 6y ago
Exactly, CFR is always expected to be higher than the IFR. Most people getting sick don't go to the doctor. The CFR is an indication of how many people feel they need to go to the doctor and get treatment due to how severe the illness is. And of those that seek treatment how many die.
scythe 6y ago
In comparing the COVID-19 IFR to the flu IFR, it is important to remember that flu vaccines are widely available and limit the spread of influenza. For example, CDC retrospectives for 2018-9 estimate that 35M Americans[1] got influenza over the flu season, or less than 12%. By contrast, the current COVID-19 infection rate in New York (from these data) is already higher than 12%. So COVID-19 has the potential to infect a larger proportion of the population than the flu usually does. (If the CDC data is correct, the flu shot may save around a hundred thousand lives per year. Don't skip it!) 1: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
- __blockcipher__ 6y ago
  That point is entirely true but doesn't really change the policy implications unless you believe that we can actually contain this thing indefinitely (i.e. that a given individual can avoid being exposed to it indefinitely)
- themgt 6y ago
  It's actually important to point out, the CDC is very explicit that they are estimating flu illnesses, in their own words "an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness" Many people are attempting to extrapolate asymptomatic COVID to estimate an infection fatality rate and then making comparisons to CDC flu data for symptomatic illness, which is completely wrong. Actual flu sero studies suggest a large fraction of the population gets flu every year[1] and IFR is more like 0.02->0.05%, so even taking NYC numbers at face value COVID looks 10-50x more fatal than flu. [1] https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002082 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...
  - jnbiche 6y ago
    >IFR is more like 0.02->0.05%, so even taking NYC numbers at face value COVID looks 10-50x more fatal than flu. Exactly, my only point in mentioning approximate flu IFR was to demonstrate that it's significantly lower than flu CFR. And so the NY COVID-19 serological study suggests a CFR well above 1%.
  - nodamage 6y ago
    Yes this is happening all over this thread and is absolutely not a valid comparison. I'm also seeing people compare age-stratified Covid rates with overall flu fatality rates which is also invalid for similar reasons.
  - kavalg 6y ago
    Is there any actual evidence that the flu vaccines indeed work? Given that 'flu' is actually a very broad term for a disease that can be caused by =many different viruses that also mutate each year.

Exactly, CFR is always expected to be higher than the IFR. Most people getting sick don't go to the doctor. The CFR is an indication of how many people feel they need to go to the doctor and get treatment due to how severe the illness is. And of those that seek treatment how many die.

scythe 6y ago

In comparing the COVID-19 IFR to the flu IFR, it is important to remember that flu vaccines are widely available and limit the spread of influenza. For example, CDC retrospectives for 2018-9 estimate that 35M Americans[1] got influenza over the flu season, or less than 12%. By contrast, the current COVID-19 infection rate in New York (from these data) is already higher than 12%. So COVID-19 has the potential to infect a larger proportion of the population than the flu usually does. (If the CDC data is correct, the flu shot may save around a hundred thousand lives per year. Don't skip it!) 1: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

__blockcipher__ 6y ago
That point is entirely true but doesn't really change the policy implications unless you believe that we can actually contain this thing indefinitely (i.e. that a given individual can avoid being exposed to it indefinitely)
themgt 6y ago
It's actually important to point out, the CDC is very explicit that they are estimating flu illnesses, in their own words "an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness" Many people are attempting to extrapolate asymptomatic COVID to estimate an infection fatality rate and then making comparisons to CDC flu data for symptomatic illness, which is completely wrong. Actual flu sero studies suggest a large fraction of the population gets flu every year[1] and IFR is more like 0.02->0.05%, so even taking NYC numbers at face value COVID looks 10-50x more fatal than flu. [1] https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002082 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...
- jnbiche 6y ago
  >IFR is more like 0.02->0.05%, so even taking NYC numbers at face value COVID looks 10-50x more fatal than flu. Exactly, my only point in mentioning approximate flu IFR was to demonstrate that it's significantly lower than flu CFR. And so the NY COVID-19 serological study suggests a CFR well above 1%.
- nodamage 6y ago
  Yes this is happening all over this thread and is absolutely not a valid comparison. I'm also seeing people compare age-stratified Covid rates with overall flu fatality rates which is also invalid for similar reasons.
- kavalg 6y ago
  Is there any actual evidence that the flu vaccines indeed work? Given that 'flu' is actually a very broad term for a disease that can be caused by =many different viruses that also mutate each year.