6 ms·
So if 100% of the USA gets it at 330 M people that amounts to: 1,650,000 deaths. It is unlikely 100% will catch it from a single wave however.
by shironineja 6y ago
So if 100% of the USA gets it at 330 M people that amounts to:
1,650,000 deaths.
It is unlikely 100% will catch it from a single wave however.
- wh1t3n01s3 6y agoHerd immunity will cap the total %! The second wave will be less contagious where current infection rate is higher.
- caoilte 6y agoYou don't get herd immunity until you hit at least 70%so that isn't very reassuring
- missedthecue 6y agoCurrently almost 100% of Americans have not caught and recovered from covid-19. Herd immunity is a long ways off.
- CubsFan1060 6y agoWhich is about 1/2 of what die in a normal year. The real question is how much do those circles overlap. Are we saving lives, or are people now dying in June that would have died in November anyway?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- phyzome 6y agoThere's a metric called something like "estimated years of life lost" based on mortality rate by age and life expectancy, but you'd also want to factor in individual life expectancy—a lot of the people dying from this already had other health conditions.
- digitaltrees 6y agoYes more people will live if they have access to care because the system isn’t overwhelmed. People in the later stages will also benefit from the institutional knowledge hospitals gain from treating patients. There will also be more PPE and essential medication that will make treatment more effective. Time is our ally.
- newacct583 6y agoThis is like the third or fourth spot I've seen on this very site where people are postulating that covid deaths would have really died in "months" anyway. Why is this so weirdly consistent? To be clear: there is absolutely no evidence for a number like that, none at all. Typical at-risk patients with comorbidity like advanced age or obesity are routinely expected to live for decades. Actual conditions with a death-in-months prognosis are extremely rare, and tend to require hospital care already. Think advanced heart failure or stage 5 cancer.
- misun78 6y agoIf you look at the median age of covid fatalities in Italy at age 81.5, this question is entirely valid. Some of the numbers I read pointed to a 16-20% all cause mortality rate for that group irrespective of covid. So by definition the circles overlap to a meaningful extent.
- newacct583 6y agoCan you link to the sources you read? Also, that 16-20% mortality rate is surely quoted per year, meaning that the expected life expectancy would be 5+ years, not a few months!
- kalleboo 6y agoJust some numbers: In Sweden, which only has a voluntary lockdown, over 30% of covid19 dead come from elderly homes[0]. Swedish elderly care is highly focused on keeping the elderly independent (at home) as long as possible, so the people in elderly homes are the ones in the worst state - 20% don't even survive one month from arrival[1] (I saw another statistic that 40% don't survive 6 months, but I can't find that source, google search results are now overwhelmed with covid19 news) That may point to an upper bound of 30% on the people dying from this that would have died "within months/a year anyway" [0] https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/kan-finnas-morkertal-over-dodsfall-pa-aldreboenden https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/kan-finnas-morkertal-over... [1] https://www.svt.se/nyheter/val2014/allt-farre-far-plats-pa-aldreboende https://www.svt.se/nyheter/val2014/allt-farre-far-plats-pa-a...