5 ms·

Right. Really this study is just confirming (with higher error bars than we'd like) what we already strongly suspected. Note that as others are pointing out,

Right. Really this study is just confirming (with higher error bars than we'd like) what we already strongly suspected. Note that as others are pointing out, that 0.5% isn't really extrapolated correctly. The tested case deaths are looking like they're only 70% of the total or so. Also using a current death count with contemporary infection counts is a mismatch, because it forgets that ~35% of the people currently in the hospital won't ever leave, which is about 5k more deaths. So a better calibrated CFR might be 1% or so, which is even closer to the range we've all been assuming.

usaar333 7y ago
Except this data is also lagging by three weeks, depending on what antibodies are being checked. Some deaths today have come from infections in April, so the net effect could be a wash. And where are you getting a 35% death rate for "ever hospitalized"? It's realistically somewhere around 15%-20%, though with major age skew. (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...)
- newacct583 7y ago
  Per https://covidtracking.com/data#state-ny https://covidtracking.com/data#state-ny there have been 57103 hospitalizations in the state (not city, so not quite the same population), of which 15021 are still hospitalized. So that's 42082 cases that have left the hospital, of which 15740 died, or 37%. Obviously there's some apples/oranges here, both due to the population being different from the city and the fact that some of those deaths were outside of hospitals. But it's close. It's been covered in the past that NYC's total fatality rate has been good but its ICU survival rate has been anomalously bad.
  - usaar333 7y ago
    Perhaps a lot of those deaths were outside hospitals (nursing homes, etc.)? Here's a report for all hospitalizations in NYC from March 1 to April 4: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184 21% of patients who discharged or died died.
cozzyd 7y ago
IFR, not CFR

usaar333 7y ago

Except this data is also lagging by three weeks, depending on what antibodies are being checked. Some deaths today have come from infections in April, so the net effect could be a wash. And where are you getting a 35% death rate for "ever hospitalized"? It's realistically somewhere around 15%-20%, though with major age skew. (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...)

newacct583 7y ago
Per https://covidtracking.com/data#state-ny https://covidtracking.com/data#state-ny there have been 57103 hospitalizations in the state (not city, so not quite the same population), of which 15021 are still hospitalized. So that's 42082 cases that have left the hospital, of which 15740 died, or 37%. Obviously there's some apples/oranges here, both due to the population being different from the city and the fact that some of those deaths were outside of hospitals. But it's close. It's been covered in the past that NYC's total fatality rate has been good but its ICU survival rate has been anomalously bad.
- usaar333 7y ago
  Perhaps a lot of those deaths were outside hospitals (nursing homes, etc.)? Here's a report for all hospitalizations in NYC from March 1 to April 4: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184 21% of patients who discharged or died died.

cozzyd 7y ago

IFR, not CFR