3 ms·

The city itself actually estimates a total of 15,411 deaths so far the the figure is already closer to 0.9%, and there are still people dying in the city every

The city itself actually estimates a total of 15,411 deaths so far the the figure is already closer to 0.9%, and there are still people dying in the city every day so will likely end up a bit higher (of course, all of this assuming the study actually represents reality). https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

pjc50 6y ago
So .. drawing a line between two points, if NY had 20% immunity for 15k dead, that implies there will be 60k dead by the end of the process. Roughly one 9/11 every week or so?
Merrill 6y ago
You also have to adjust for the people who are already sick but haven't died yet. That would likely get you somewhere between 1 and 1.5%. So for herd immunity in the US at 200,000,000 recovered, that would be 2 to 3 million. That's consistent with earlier projections.
- glofish 6y ago
  one problem with all these projections is that they all assume everyone is the same and that it is just a matter of chance. Not true in the least bit. those most susceptible get the disease first, those most sensitive die first - I believe the ratios will not stay the same, but continuously tick downwards
  - Jovbrev 6y ago
    On the other part, those who are more vulnerable are more aware, and are implementing more measures in their daily living, hence they are not getting infected as much, currently. Hope it stays that way.
    - glofish 6y ago
      Not sure that makes any difference. Not only are death rates sharply higher in older people, but their infection rates relative to the population are also higher as well.
      - greedo 6y ago
        Without better testing, you have no way of knowing whether older people have higher infection rates. Infection rates depend on far more variables than age. Witness what's happening on the Teddy Roosevelt.

3 ms·

The city itself actually estimates a total of 15,411 deaths so far the the figure is already closer to 0.9%, and there are still people dying in the city every

by ashaiber 6y ago

pjc50 6y ago
So .. drawing a line between two points, if NY had 20% immunity for 15k dead, that implies there will be 60k dead by the end of the process. Roughly one 9/11 every week or so?
Merrill 6y ago
You also have to adjust for the people who are already sick but haven't died yet. That would likely get you somewhere between 1 and 1.5%. So for herd immunity in the US at 200,000,000 recovered, that would be 2 to 3 million. That's consistent with earlier projections.
- glofish 6y ago
  one problem with all these projections is that they all assume everyone is the same and that it is just a matter of chance. Not true in the least bit. those most susceptible get the disease first, those most sensitive die first - I believe the ratios will not stay the same, but continuously tick downwards
  - Jovbrev 6y ago
    On the other part, those who are more vulnerable are more aware, and are implementing more measures in their daily living, hence they are not getting infected as much, currently. Hope it stays that way.
    - glofish 6y ago
      Not sure that makes any difference. Not only are death rates sharply higher in older people, but their infection rates relative to the population are also higher as well.
      - greedo 6y ago
        Without better testing, you have no way of knowing whether older people have higher infection rates. Infection rates depend on far more variables than age. Witness what's happening on the Teddy Roosevelt.