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0.18% of the entire NYC population is already dead from the coronavirus and by the time this is over the number will probably reach or exceed 0.3%. If you want
by esoterica 7y ago
0.18% of the entire NYC population is already dead from the coronavirus and by the time this is over the number will probably reach or exceed 0.3%.
If you want the whole country to get herd immunity you will probably see similar mortality rates across the country. 0.3% of the US population is 1 million people. How have the models been proven to be "pessimistic by orders of magnitude?
- cdash 7y agoJust so you know, around 3 million people die in the US every year, many of the million people you expect to die would have ended up being counted in that 3 million background statistic. More importantly, herd immunity is the ONLY solution on the table right now, the lockdown is not about stopping the virus in its tracks. It is about spreading it out over a period of time.
- esoterica 7y ago>the lockdown is not about stopping the virus in its tracks. It is about spreading it out over a period of time. It's unclear what the lockdown is about at all since the government messaging has been incoherent. Many countries have (so far) succesfully contained the virus without herd immunity through contact tracing, and the US government has been making vague comments about pursuing something along those lines despite not doing anything to increase testing volumes to the levels necessary for contact tracing.
- usaar333 7y agoDepends where you are. The Bay Area is contact tracing every case and as a result is at a really low new case count (Santa Clara County is at 11 per million/day over the last week, significantly lower than successful country's peaks (NZ/SK), while still having tighter restrictions.