3 ms·

0.1% is the flu cfr. 0.6ish% seems to be the corona ifr. these are comparing chalk and cheese. how many people who get the flu never rock up to a doctor? the if

by ferzul 6y ago

0.1% is the flu cfr. 0.6ish% seems to be the corona ifr. these are comparing chalk and cheese. how many people who get the flu never rock up to a doctor? the ifr for flu is closer to 0.01%. the worst case scenarios are disproven it is true - but so is the idea that it's just a flu. let us be grateful this trial run of a deadly global pandemic was only moderately bad.

glofish 6y ago
first you say 0.1% is the CFR for flu then, in the same sentence you claim that it is probably closer to 0.01% because people don't go to doctors with the flu. Are you arguing that after all this time we still don't know what the actual CFR for flu is? And that the reported CFR is a gross overestimation? - I find that hard to believe. To me, this feels that once this disease hits the reported flu numbers people start arguing that oh wait, the flu is actually even less dangerous ...
- jsnell 6y ago
  Oh, wait. You don't understand that the CFR and IFR are not the same thing? That explains a lot. I thought you were just being disingenous when comparing the early CFR statistics to the current IFR estimates. The CFR is, by definition, computed from known cases. It's thus trivial to determine exactly: just divide the confirmed deaths by confirmed cases. So we definitely know the CFR of flu. The problem is, of coures, that it's highly likely to be an over-estimate. On the other hand, the IFR is hard to determine, since we don't know which cases we missed, nor whether the unresolved cases will end up living or dying. Which is why all we have is estimates.
cma 6y ago
.1% is flu IFR but if I remember right the number doesn't include true asymptomatics which are estimated at up to 75% (which could bring it down to 0.025%). I'm not sure on this, that was on a CDC page I saw.

3 ms·

0.1% is the flu cfr. 0.6ish% seems to be the corona ifr. these are comparing chalk and cheese. how many people who get the flu never rock up to a doctor? the if

by ferzul 6y ago

glofish 6y ago
first you say 0.1% is the CFR for flu then, in the same sentence you claim that it is probably closer to 0.01% because people don't go to doctors with the flu. Are you arguing that after all this time we still don't know what the actual CFR for flu is? And that the reported CFR is a gross overestimation? - I find that hard to believe. To me, this feels that once this disease hits the reported flu numbers people start arguing that oh wait, the flu is actually even less dangerous ...
- jsnell 6y ago
  Oh, wait. You don't understand that the CFR and IFR are not the same thing? That explains a lot. I thought you were just being disingenous when comparing the early CFR statistics to the current IFR estimates. The CFR is, by definition, computed from known cases. It's thus trivial to determine exactly: just divide the confirmed deaths by confirmed cases. So we definitely know the CFR of flu. The problem is, of coures, that it's highly likely to be an over-estimate. On the other hand, the IFR is hard to determine, since we don't know which cases we missed, nor whether the unresolved cases will end up living or dying. Which is why all we have is estimates.
cma 6y ago
.1% is flu IFR but if I remember right the number doesn't include true asymptomatics which are estimated at up to 75% (which could bring it down to 0.025%). I'm not sure on this, that was on a CDC page I saw.