8 ms·

I would not really call the Swedish model successful - Czech Republic and Sweden have both about 10 million inhabitants. Things moved pretty quickly to pretty

I would not really call the Swedish model successful - Czech Republic and Sweden have both about 10 million inhabitants. Things moved pretty quickly to pretty comprehensive lockdown here in Czech Republic, including mandatory mask wearing. So far this seem to be effective, with combined death toll currently at 210. In comparison Sweden has almost 10x as much, 2010 dead. Looks like if more has been done less people could have died, not to mention the alarming news about organ damage, virus resurgence and questionable long term immunity.

chasd00 7y ago
as others have said, the area under the curve remains the same. The idea with Sweden is, after one year, the deaths will be about the same as everywhere else.
- gorbachev 7y ago
  If the hospitals get overcrowded, there will also be more people dying from other causes and suffering from long term consequences, because a percentage of them won't be able to receive adequate care. I haven't seen any actual data on how big that impact might be, however.
  - jobigoud 7y ago
    Even without overwhelmed hospitals there is a lot of excess mortality not directly explained by published COVID-19 death numbers. Including in Sweden.
alkonaut 7y ago
Q is how many are dead when a region has 80% immunity (through vaccination or infection). Those dead should include also deaths due to lack of planned care, cuts in healthcare due to recession, suicides due to unemployment and so on. Those countries that lock down and stop a first wave with only a few percent infected are basically betting on the arrival of effective treatment or effective containment. Those that don’t are betting that containment is impossible and effective treatments and vaccines are a year out at least. It’s impossible to say which scenario is right but I know I’d place my bet the same as the Swedish state epidemiologist.

chasd00 7y ago

as others have said, the area under the curve remains the same. The idea with Sweden is, after one year, the deaths will be about the same as everywhere else.

gorbachev 7y ago
If the hospitals get overcrowded, there will also be more people dying from other causes and suffering from long term consequences, because a percentage of them won't be able to receive adequate care. I haven't seen any actual data on how big that impact might be, however.
- jobigoud 7y ago
  Even without overwhelmed hospitals there is a lot of excess mortality not directly explained by published COVID-19 death numbers. Including in Sweden.

alkonaut 7y ago

Q is how many are dead when a region has 80% immunity (through vaccination or infection). Those dead should include also deaths due to lack of planned care, cuts in healthcare due to recession, suicides due to unemployment and so on. Those countries that lock down and stop a first wave with only a few percent infected are basically betting on the arrival of effective treatment or effective containment. Those that don’t are betting that containment is impossible and effective treatments and vaccines are a year out at least. It’s impossible to say which scenario is right but I know I’d place my bet the same as the Swedish state epidemiologist.