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But if that held then we'd eradicate flu and the common cold two. Quarantines don't eradicate disease they slow the spread but the area under the curve is const
by DeonPenny 7y ago
But if that held then we'd eradicate flu and the common cold two. Quarantines don't eradicate disease they slow the spread but the area under the curve is constant. I doubt will change the number of infected is a constant regardless of the rate.
- tunesmith 7y agoThat's only true if medical and technological advancements don't happen. A vaccine a year from now means less death if we've locked down in the meantime, compared to if we haven't locked down. Similarly, if we scale up testing and contact tracing to the point we can eventually eradicate the disease through targeted quarantines, a preceding lockdown means less death. If instead we don't experience any advancements, then right, it just means the same number of infections are spread out over a longer period of time.
- DeonPenny 7y agoWhich for me the later seems more possible simply because vaccines from what I heard would take 5 years. Thinks like SARS and zika still have no vaccine despite being around for years.
- greedo 7y agoThe flu mutates. The common cold isn't a single virus, but one of hundreds lumped together, that also mutate. So there's no long term herd immunity for either.