3 ms·

NYC is younger and healthier than the US average so these are lower bounds for national average outcomes.

• taeric 6y ago
  A datum that is hard to square when the deaths are still dominated by the older population. If you had convinced everyone over seventy to move out of NYC last year, their CFR would be a fraction of what it is now.
  • kgwgk 6y ago
    So the IFR will be lower in the rest of the country than in NYC because... they are going to send everyone over seventy to the Moon or something?
    • taeric 6y ago
      No. I was not claiming it would be lower. Apologies if the framing said it that way. I was just pointing out that we really don't have bounds on this anywhere else.
      • yibg 6y ago
        I'm not sure how that matters. We have a lower bound for an optimistic demographic representation of the country. If NYC is younger and healthier than average and is at 0.2%, why would the lower bound for the country as a whole be lower?
        • taeric 6y ago
          I am actually having a hard time squaring the claim that they are younger than the average. The number of people over 70 that have died in NYC is above the number of people over 40 in many cities across the nation. That all said, my point is that we don't know the bounds. Period. It could be higher. It could be lower. That is why I said it is conceivable. Probably it is about that value in most places. I am interested in where the data falls.