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Yes, but the age is a 10x factor, os CFR would be much different in Nigeria (average age is about 19) and Italy (average age 45). We have two good petri dishes:
by lukasm 6y ago
Yes, but the age is a 10x factor, os CFR would be much different in Nigeria (average age is about 19) and Italy (average age 45). We have two good petri dishes:
USS Theodore Roosevelt - 600 cases out of 4800. 5 sick, one dead (41 years old).
which means hospitalisation is at 0.83% and CFR is 0.016% (1% dead or in hospital). Not idea what is the average age, probably around 30-35.
Diamond Princess: 700 of 3711. CFR 1.1%, average age around 50.
What worries me the most though is potential mutations and death rates when you are infected with Covid-19 and flu at the same time (or other pathogens).
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=ff928b9a9f-briefing-dy-20200417&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-ff928b9a9f-44762053 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-mi...
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=ff928b9a9f-briefing-dy-20200417&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-ff928b9a9f-44762053 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w?utm_sourc...
- rckoepke 6y agoAverage age on an aircraft carrier appears to be 19 [0], 20 [1], and/or 24 [2] years old. 0: https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/arts/television/20jens.html https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/arts/television/20jens.ht... 1: https://archive.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=15334 https://archive.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=15334 2: https://mashable.com/2016/06/23/what-its-really-like-to-live-and-work-on-an-aircraft-carrier/ https://mashable.com/2016/06/23/what-its-really-like-to-live...
- rallison 6y ago> which means hospitalisation is at 0.83% and CFR is 0.016% (1% dead or in hospital). 0.16%, not 0.016%.
- greedo 6y agoYou can't measure CFR or IFR this quickly in an isolated environment like the Roosevelt due to mortality lag. Also, the CFR for Diamond Princess is now up to 1.83%.