3 ms·
More like 50-80%, you just need spread to be impeded so that r falls below 1, but for that many people to get it would mean very high deaths, in the US 1% of 80
by grey-area 7y ago
More like 50-80%, you just need spread to be impeded so that r falls below 1, but for that many people to get it would mean very high deaths, in the US 1% of 80% of 320m is > 2m deaths.
- nullc 7y agoKeep in mind that if 21% of NYC residence have been infected this probably implies R0 in that population was higher than in most prior estimates of R0, which increases the threshold of immune people before R0 falls below 1.
- votepaunchy 7y agoIt also implies that the R0 of the already-infected population is higher than that of the not-yet-affected population.
- robocat 7y agoR0 varies hugely. The R0 for highly connected people meeting others regularly, will be far higher than the R0 for people who only leave the house once a week. The R0 in a crowded prison will be far higher than the R0 of rural farm owners.