3 ms·
It will be interesting checking back in 2-3 years and evaluating the efficacy of approaches by different countries. As referenced in the interview, each country
by option_behavior 6y ago
It will be interesting checking back in 2-3 years and evaluating the efficacy of approaches by different countries. As referenced in the interview, each country has to eventually reach herd immunity. For the majority of the world this will be when 60-80% of the population has antibodies through the natural spread of the virus.
Assuming healthcare systems are not at overcapacity, our resources will best be spent protecting at risk groups. These are mainly old people, given that the average life expectancy of those who have died is just over a decade.
I'm confused why so many people are extraordinarily emotional and passionate about shelter-in-place. We should be focused on increasing healthcare capacity, and more importantly securing the safety of at-risk populations which are primarily composed of old people.
This is where honest and effective communication over the objective risks for different groups is essential. If you are under 30 with no pre-existing conditions, the odds of dying are < 1/100,000. The numbers are commensurately promising for those without underlying health conditions in their 30s, 40s, and even 50s.
It is silly to prioritize shelter-in-place going forward, across most of the developed and developing world. The costs are tremendously high, as we actually want most relatively young and healthy people to be exposed to the virus to protect at-risk populations.
There was even a recent study published that revealed if we intentionally infected young and healthy people, death rates from C-19 would nearly halve. A solution could turn out to be staggering payments to very low risk groups to get infected, taking into account people's various living situations. Unfortunately, I think most governments would prefer 2x,3x,4x, etc. death rates over paying people to infect themselves.
I believe many people will look back and admire the Swedish model for their practical and effective approach. Excessive shelter-in-place has tremendous costs, with minimal benefits once healthcare systems are stabilized. Hopefully nations around the world accept this reality and act accordingly.