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Also another data point suggesting that the virus is much more contagious than the early estimates said. I personally don't see how the test, track and trace e
by Exmoor 6y ago
Also another data point suggesting that the virus is much more contagious than the early estimates said.
I personally don't see how the test, track and trace efforts that have been touted as the only way to open things up can work with a virus with these characteristics. You would need to test a huge percentage of the population each day with quick results tests and something like that is many months away from being possible assuming it ever would be possible.
- daxfohl 6y agoI agree. But it seems to have worked in Korea. The math doesn't seem to reconcile somehow. Actually probably the prevalence of masks explains the difference.
- taeric 6y agoThe math seems to point more to there being another factor to what makes it severe, in my eye. Going by the news we have seen, elementary schools could have 80%+ infection rates and fewer deaths that NY has seen. Similarly, are there other factors besides age? (Age feels way more like a proxy.)
- istorical 6y agoMore contagious OR began community spread and became endemic much earlier. r0 is part of the formula for total infected at X/Y/Z date but so is date of initial infection and size of initial infected population.
- GVIrish 6y agoThe key is testing, contract tracing, and quarantining when the number of cases is small. That's what South Korea, New Zealand, and a few other countries did and they've all suffered relatively few fatalities. You still need a massive amount of tests to contain an outbreak, but the upside is that if you contain it early you don't need toe enact clumsy and broad measures like lockdowns.