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Deaths is a lagging indicator though, so even if it's reliable it comes in a bit late to make any policy changes off of it, and nobody likes waiting for 3 weeks
by vikramkr 7y ago
Deaths is a lagging indicator though, so even if it's reliable it comes in a bit late to make any policy changes off of it, and nobody likes waiting for 3 weeks to a month after each little change to see how it's reflected in death rates. Maybe it's reliable in the statistical sense, but not reliable in the sense that a layperson or a politician would be able to rely on it to guide decision making.
- kjakm 7y ago>> Maybe it's reliable in the statistical sense, but not reliable in the sense that a layperson or a politician would be able to rely on it to guide decision making. This seems to be what we're relying on in the UK. Hospital admissions for Covid show a good/relatively quick estimate of how measures are working and then a few weeks later a reflection of that trend in deaths confirms it.