11 ms·

HANG ON! This only considers patients already discharged or died at the end of the study some ~300 patients. But there are still ~1000 patients who were on mech

HANG ON! This only considers patients already discharged or died at the end of the study some ~300 patients. But there are still ~1000 patients who were on mechanical ventilation that are still in the hospital (so aren't included in the denominator). We don't know their outcomes yet and so this is a best a sensationalist headline. Patients with this disease are on mechanical ventilation for much longer than most patients, so early reports like this don't reflect true eventual outcomes. Maybe it will be similar, but maybe it will be more like 40%, which is the usual mortality rate in ARDS.

bryogenic 6y ago
Additionally given the expectation of ventilator shortages these hospitals have likely been preferentially providing ventilators to the sickest patients. Mortality in other areas where shortages don't exist will likely be lower.
- happytoexplain 6y ago
  This cuts both ways, and I personally don't know which contributes more statistically: Hospitals are also preferentially assigning ventilators to patients more likely to be saved by them. I.e. they prioritize patients who are sick enough to need a ventilator, but not so bad off as to be unlikely to be saved by one.
- edanm 6y ago
  I thought there weren't shortages? I mean, the expectation was that there might be, but given the social distancing efforts, NYC didn't end up facing shortages, meaning there would be no need to not give some people ventilators?
  - eitland 6y ago
    > but given the social distancing efforts, NYC didn't end up facing shortages Another reason (warning, just from reading the news here and elsewhere) might be that it seems ventilators aren't as useful with Covid-19 as expected, and possibly actively harmful in a number of cases (again, this is just my rehash of what I have read). From what I read doctors now try to use just proning and extra oxygen for as long as possible even if ventilators are available. People actually working in healthcare or who have first hand knowledge should feel welcome to update this.

bryogenic 6y ago

Additionally given the expectation of ventilator shortages these hospitals have likely been preferentially providing ventilators to the sickest patients. Mortality in other areas where shortages don't exist will likely be lower.

happytoexplain 6y ago
This cuts both ways, and I personally don't know which contributes more statistically: Hospitals are also preferentially assigning ventilators to patients more likely to be saved by them. I.e. they prioritize patients who are sick enough to need a ventilator, but not so bad off as to be unlikely to be saved by one.
edanm 6y ago
I thought there weren't shortages? I mean, the expectation was that there might be, but given the social distancing efforts, NYC didn't end up facing shortages, meaning there would be no need to not give some people ventilators?
- eitland 6y ago
  > but given the social distancing efforts, NYC didn't end up facing shortages Another reason (warning, just from reading the news here and elsewhere) might be that it seems ventilators aren't as useful with Covid-19 as expected, and possibly actively harmful in a number of cases (again, this is just my rehash of what I have read). From what I read doctors now try to use just proning and extra oxygen for as long as possible even if ventilators are available. People actually working in healthcare or who have first hand knowledge should feel welcome to update this.