6 ms·

I wonder what effect it will have on future of the countries. As majority of the people who are dying have cormobities or they are old that means now governmen

I wonder what effect it will have on future of the countries. As majority of the people who are dying have cormobities or they are old that means now government will not have to spend money on pension or healthcare and this will lessen the tax burden!? Less population = more housing Younger population leftover after virus = higher economic output!?

Causality1 6y ago
The numbers just aren't big enough for that. I'm sure there will be a measurable effect but I doubt a noticeable effect. There are over fifty million seniors in the US alone.
jdm2212 6y ago
The IFR is estimated to be something like 1%, so the direct effect on housing will be not that large, and also the surviving spouses will continue to occupy the home. At least in the US, pensions and social insurance generally get redirected to the surviving spouse or their minor children (if any). Younger population doesn't imply higher economic output. It implies higher per capita economic output.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  The housing changes in the form of primary residences won’t change much. The housing market changes in the form of short term rental properties re-entering the long term rental space however....
  - jdm2212 6y ago
    When the economy picks up and people start apartment hunting again, I suspect they'll also start booking Airbnbs again.
    - ashtonkem 6y ago
      And a lot of hosts will have been forced to liquidate some of their holdings before then.
      - jdm2212 6y ago
        My prior is that a similar number of units will wind up back on that market once demand picks back up. Demand might not pick back up, or Airbnb hosts might be more cautious in the future about going all in on Airbnb, but if people want Airbnbs, the market will probably provide them.
        ashtonkem 6y ago
        I’m sure some people will want to buy up units for dedicated short term rentals, but the question is whether they’ll be allowed to. The politics of this has been discussed to death, but I can’t help but wonder if banks will be unwilling to allow their borrowers to get quite so heavily leveraged going forward in the short term rental space.
- votepaunchy 6y ago
  The effect, whether large or small, will be much greater to Medicare than Social Security. Nursing homes residents are far more exposed than the general retired population.
loopz 6y ago
If managed, not many will die or be scarred from this virus. The latter might be a large liability if left uncontrolled. No country let this spread uncontrolled as of yet. Some country lockdown too late, and do later full shutdown. This pandemic is like an individual getting sick, but now it's the world. It's a massive opportunity to redefine what life on earth is supposed to be and gain clarity to unlock new creative potentials. Individuals do this routinely after shocks, so the same is available to the collective.
smt88 6y ago
Your comment comes across as repulsive because it seems you believe the following: 1) People with conditions like diabetes are a burden, and having fewer of them will save us money. 2) The housing crisis is caused by overpopulation, not by perverse incentives or inequality of opportunity. 3) Younger people create more economic output. 4) You are excited about all of this -- specifically, about all of these people dying. Sick people are not weak sheep in a herd. You have no idea what their net output or effect on society is. Many of the dead are talented doctors or nurses who had asthma or asymptomatic heart issues. If you're excited about hundreds of thousands of people dying, keep it to yourself. Many of the rest of us will lose loved ones before this is over.
- catalogia 6y ago
  > Many of the dead are talented doctors or nurses who had asthma or asymptomatic heart issues. Many of them are, but most of them aren't. This isn't a pleasant subject, but when you're talking about events at this scale, general trends count for something. I'm growing pretty weary of the moral grandstanding in these conversations.
  - ben_w 6y ago
    You can recognise the subject isn’t pleasant, yet you’re surprised people react badly to it?
    - catalogia 6y ago
      I didn't say I'm surprised. I said I'm growing weary. Wearier by the minute..
      - ben_w 6y ago
        Have you considered not doing the things that make you weary?
        catalogia 6y ago
cultus 6y ago
This is a very immoral and insane way of looking at this problem. Supposedly dispassionate, "rational," mathematical economics has wreaked havoc just because it focuses on numbers and output and forgetting that we are dealing with humans who have feelings and people they love and who love them.
ProAm 6y ago
You comment is so extremely apathetic and reeks of eugenic desires. Everyone grows old, no one is born with the same chances as everyone else, we are all people of the earth.
wegs 6y ago
younger population with long-term lung problems = higher medical costs?

Causality1 6y ago

The numbers just aren't big enough for that. I'm sure there will be a measurable effect but I doubt a noticeable effect. There are over fifty million seniors in the US alone.

jdm2212 6y ago

The IFR is estimated to be something like 1%, so the direct effect on housing will be not that large, and also the surviving spouses will continue to occupy the home. At least in the US, pensions and social insurance generally get redirected to the surviving spouse or their minor children (if any). Younger population doesn't imply higher economic output. It implies higher per capita economic output.

ashtonkem 6y ago
The housing changes in the form of primary residences won’t change much. The housing market changes in the form of short term rental properties re-entering the long term rental space however....
- jdm2212 6y ago
  When the economy picks up and people start apartment hunting again, I suspect they'll also start booking Airbnbs again.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    And a lot of hosts will have been forced to liquidate some of their holdings before then.
    - jdm2212 6y ago
      My prior is that a similar number of units will wind up back on that market once demand picks back up. Demand might not pick back up, or Airbnb hosts might be more cautious in the future about going all in on Airbnb, but if people want Airbnbs, the market will probably provide them.
      - ashtonkem 6y ago
        I’m sure some people will want to buy up units for dedicated short term rentals, but the question is whether they’ll be allowed to. The politics of this has been discussed to death, but I can’t help but wonder if banks will be unwilling to allow their borrowers to get quite so heavily leveraged going forward in the short term rental space.
votepaunchy 6y ago
The effect, whether large or small, will be much greater to Medicare than Social Security. Nursing homes residents are far more exposed than the general retired population.

loopz 6y ago

If managed, not many will die or be scarred from this virus. The latter might be a large liability if left uncontrolled. No country let this spread uncontrolled as of yet. Some country lockdown too late, and do later full shutdown. This pandemic is like an individual getting sick, but now it's the world. It's a massive opportunity to redefine what life on earth is supposed to be and gain clarity to unlock new creative potentials. Individuals do this routinely after shocks, so the same is available to the collective.

smt88 6y ago

Your comment comes across as repulsive because it seems you believe the following: 1) People with conditions like diabetes are a burden, and having fewer of them will save us money. 2) The housing crisis is caused by overpopulation, not by perverse incentives or inequality of opportunity. 3) Younger people create more economic output. 4) You are excited about all of this -- specifically, about all of these people dying. Sick people are not weak sheep in a herd. You have no idea what their net output or effect on society is. Many of the dead are talented doctors or nurses who had asthma or asymptomatic heart issues. If you're excited about hundreds of thousands of people dying, keep it to yourself. Many of the rest of us will lose loved ones before this is over.

catalogia 6y ago
> Many of the dead are talented doctors or nurses who had asthma or asymptomatic heart issues. Many of them are, but most of them aren't. This isn't a pleasant subject, but when you're talking about events at this scale, general trends count for something. I'm growing pretty weary of the moral grandstanding in these conversations.
- ben_w 6y ago
  You can recognise the subject isn’t pleasant, yet you’re surprised people react badly to it?
  - catalogia 6y ago
    I didn't say I'm surprised. I said I'm growing weary. Wearier by the minute..
    - ben_w 6y ago
      Have you considered not doing the things that make you weary?
      - catalogia 6y ago

cultus 6y ago

This is a very immoral and insane way of looking at this problem. Supposedly dispassionate, "rational," mathematical economics has wreaked havoc just because it focuses on numbers and output and forgetting that we are dealing with humans who have feelings and people they love and who love them.

ProAm 6y ago

You comment is so extremely apathetic and reeks of eugenic desires. Everyone grows old, no one is born with the same chances as everyone else, we are all people of the earth.

wegs 6y ago

younger population with long-term lung problems = higher medical costs?