5 ms·

"Three of the SSEs—in Japan, Skagit County, WA, and Singapore—involved concert-goers and singing groups belting out tunes together over a period of hours. (The

"Three of the SSEs—in Japan, Skagit County, WA, and Singapore—involved concert-goers and singing groups belting out tunes together over a period of hours. (The Skagit example is particularly interesting, because the organizers were aware of the COVID-19 risk beforehand, and took the precaution of spacing out the participants by several feet. If they had been merely chatting, instead of singing, no one might have gotten sick.)" Imagine how bad Austin would have been if SXSW had actually gone ahead given how hellbent they were on going through with it. It would have been much much worse state than it is now. It is a positive that the government listened to health officials and shut it all down despite the complaining to the contrary. Economies never work well in sickened environments.

uxhack 6y ago
But the article goes on to say that "common human activity that aren’t represented among these listed SSEs: watching movies in a theater, being on a train or bus, attending theater, opera, or symphony" But what I found interesting about the article (and it is long read) is his hypotheses on mode of transmission. Which is the "direct ballistic delivery of a large-droplet Flüggian payload from face A to face B" and that means that interventions like the "expanded use of masks and social distancing is critical" And we should also speak softly, avoid “coughing, blowing and sneezing,” or exhibiting any kind of agitated respiratory state in public, and angle their mouths downward when speaking." But he does warn that he is a Computer Scientist rather than having any medical background.
- klmadfejno 6y ago
  Just hypothesizing as well, but I think he might have it backwards. I'm not convinced you'll get magnitudes more virus in the ambient air from singing. But as a receiver if you're mouth breathing and taking deep breaths you're extra vulnerable. Nose hair is pretty effective
  - agarden 6y ago
    If the conductor wants you to make the consonants clear, then there will be spittle. Agreed that the deep breathing is likely just as important.
- f38zf5vdt 6y ago
  The author seems to ignore the obvious confounding factor here of selection bias -- super spreader events all seem to deal with people who are in the same social circles rather than outside them, as would be the case in public transportation, movie theaters, gyms, etc. The reason being that events with people in social socials are readily traceable to an infected individual attending, whereas contact tracing for anonymous infection in a shared area is much more difficult. Even diseases with low transmissibility are known to be disseminated by public transit, such as tuberculosis. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4338233/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4338233/
  - hammock 6y ago
    Interesting theory, why do you suppose a concert has more friends and less strangers at it than an opera or symphony?
    - joshuahedlund 6y ago
      Well, I'd say there's a big difference between sitting silently in chairs at an opera or symphony and standing/moshing/yelling loudly in extremely crowded quarters at a rock concert.
      - DataWorker 6y ago
        A lot of coughing and high risk individuals at the symphony though, unfortunately.
        daotoad 6y ago
        High risk for mortality, yes. But are they higher risk for actually catching the bug when exposed? I don't think anyone knows that. I'm not even sure how you could come up with numbers on how much viral exposure is needed to infect someone, short of controlled experiments with volunteers. The odds of killing a few volunteers seems pretty damn high, especially if you are testing with more vulnerable folks to establish a differential estimate. That's not a study I'd want to be involved in on either side of the clipboard.
- slg 6y ago
  >or exhibiting any kind of agitated respiratory state in public The only sizable population of people that I still see out in public that aren't wearing masks are joggers. I wonder if and when we will put a stop to that.
- malandrew 6y ago
  This would also explain why many people are asymptomatic. They are still getting exposed but with a much lower viral load. Maybe the best "vaccine" here is just the lowest possible microdose of the coronavirus. We really should be looking at all the asymptomatic or low symptoms folks and figuring out what they have in common with one another. I would bet you it's just very low exposure, which gives the body more time to develop antibodies and mount a defense instead of the immune system being overwhelmed before it can adequately develop antibodies.
gowld 6y ago
> If they had been merely chatting, instead of singing, no one might have gotten sick. Really??
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  It's entirely possible. Heavier breathing expels more droplets, and further.
  - compiler-guy 6y ago
    It also requires deeper inhalation by the receiver.

uxhack 6y ago

But the article goes on to say that "common human activity that aren’t represented among these listed SSEs: watching movies in a theater, being on a train or bus, attending theater, opera, or symphony" But what I found interesting about the article (and it is long read) is his hypotheses on mode of transmission. Which is the "direct ballistic delivery of a large-droplet Flüggian payload from face A to face B" and that means that interventions like the "expanded use of masks and social distancing is critical" And we should also speak softly, avoid “coughing, blowing and sneezing,” or exhibiting any kind of agitated respiratory state in public, and angle their mouths downward when speaking." But he does warn that he is a Computer Scientist rather than having any medical background.

klmadfejno 6y ago
Just hypothesizing as well, but I think he might have it backwards. I'm not convinced you'll get magnitudes more virus in the ambient air from singing. But as a receiver if you're mouth breathing and taking deep breaths you're extra vulnerable. Nose hair is pretty effective
- agarden 6y ago
  If the conductor wants you to make the consonants clear, then there will be spittle. Agreed that the deep breathing is likely just as important.
f38zf5vdt 6y ago
The author seems to ignore the obvious confounding factor here of selection bias -- super spreader events all seem to deal with people who are in the same social circles rather than outside them, as would be the case in public transportation, movie theaters, gyms, etc. The reason being that events with people in social socials are readily traceable to an infected individual attending, whereas contact tracing for anonymous infection in a shared area is much more difficult. Even diseases with low transmissibility are known to be disseminated by public transit, such as tuberculosis. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4338233/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4338233/
- hammock 6y ago
  Interesting theory, why do you suppose a concert has more friends and less strangers at it than an opera or symphony?
  - joshuahedlund 6y ago
    Well, I'd say there's a big difference between sitting silently in chairs at an opera or symphony and standing/moshing/yelling loudly in extremely crowded quarters at a rock concert.
    - DataWorker 6y ago
      A lot of coughing and high risk individuals at the symphony though, unfortunately.
      - daotoad 6y ago
        High risk for mortality, yes. But are they higher risk for actually catching the bug when exposed? I don't think anyone knows that. I'm not even sure how you could come up with numbers on how much viral exposure is needed to infect someone, short of controlled experiments with volunteers. The odds of killing a few volunteers seems pretty damn high, especially if you are testing with more vulnerable folks to establish a differential estimate. That's not a study I'd want to be involved in on either side of the clipboard.
slg 6y ago
>or exhibiting any kind of agitated respiratory state in public The only sizable population of people that I still see out in public that aren't wearing masks are joggers. I wonder if and when we will put a stop to that.
malandrew 6y ago
This would also explain why many people are asymptomatic. They are still getting exposed but with a much lower viral load. Maybe the best "vaccine" here is just the lowest possible microdose of the coronavirus. We really should be looking at all the asymptomatic or low symptoms folks and figuring out what they have in common with one another. I would bet you it's just very low exposure, which gives the body more time to develop antibodies and mount a defense instead of the immune system being overwhelmed before it can adequately develop antibodies.

gowld 6y ago

> If they had been merely chatting, instead of singing, no one might have gotten sick. Really??

ceejayoz 6y ago
It's entirely possible. Heavier breathing expels more droplets, and further.
- compiler-guy 6y ago
  It also requires deeper inhalation by the receiver.