4 ms·
If you have 800 000 active cases you need to reduce R very close to 0 to get rid of it in a reasonable time, just having sub 1 is not enough.
by esailija 6y ago
If you have 800 000 active cases you need to reduce R very close to 0 to get rid of it in a reasonable time, just having sub 1 is not enough.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y agoIn China, it was suppressed to somewhere around 0.3. They went from nearly 4000 new confirmed cases per day in early February to about 100 new confirmed cases per day (at a much higher rate of testing) a month later. New cases are low enough now that contact tracing appears to be holding the epidemic in check. Once you reach a low overall case count, you can ease measures to target R ~ 1. The alternative, letting the epidemic burn through the population, means sacrificing ~0.5% of the population. Given the steady pace of ~30k new confirmed cases per day in the US, R has not been suppressed enough. Yet governors are talking about easing restrictions...