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I read a blog analyzing the numbers out of California, which said that they'd made some pretty critical errors; namely, it wasn't clear what the false-positive
by gwd 7y ago
I read a blog analyzing the numbers out of California, which said that they'd made some pretty critical errors; namely, it wasn't clear what the false-positive rate of their test was, and that even a fairly small false-positive rate would put "0" within their error bars.
Germany is running nearly half a million tests per week now against a population of 83 million. I can believe that their true infection number is 2 or maybe even 3 times the official number, but I have a pretty hard time believing 20x.
- gwd 7y agoBTW, here's a link to the blog I mentioned: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/ https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaw...
- marvin 7y agoPeople are grasping at straws. It's so horrendous to believe that the world will be struggling with the pandemic for 18-24 months that any plausible-sounding indication otherwise is taken as truth. Been seeing it for three or four weeks already, ever since Elon Musk first quoted the hopeful-sounding but incorrect study stating that most of the UK had already had the disease.