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>I don't see the evidence to support the Swedish solution, nor it as virtous example of science over common sense. The strong point of Sweden's response is tha

>I don't see the evidence to support the Swedish solution, nor it as virtous example of science over common sense. The strong point of Sweden's response is that the Swedish economy is going to suffer much less. Other countries will have to piece their economies together after their lockdowns end. Furthermore, Sweden can keep things going as they are for a long time. How long do you think Australia could keep its lockdown going? If there's going to be evidence to show that Sweden was right then it'll likely take a few years before we can measure the economic impact and all that brings with it. I'm not saying they are right, I'm just saying it's too early to tell that they're wrong.

friendlybus 7y ago
I'm all good with Sweden doing what it wants, it's nice to see a country stand up for it's own values and culture and laws in the face of a deadly virus and find an outcome that works. Pushing a weak argument about the virtues of science as a reasoning for doing so seems a bit much. Australia will go as long as necessary, it is taking this opportunity to do the largest economic reform in 30 years. Australia relies on reform to stop itself from becoming the 'poor white trash in asia' (Lee Kuan Yew). Reductions in corporation tax, strengthening of unions and many more changes. Retail had been slowing down pre-covid and the mining is out of it's boom cycle. There has been rumblings for change coming for a while and all this lockdown is a great way to rejig the setup. We are setting up our agriculture to boom in the 30s so in the long term we should be okay.
esoterica 7y ago
The IMF predicts that Sweden's GDP is going to shrink 6.8% this year. Denmark, Norway and Finland are predicted to shrink only 6.5%, 6.3% and 6.0% respectively, despite locking down more aggressively than Sweden. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SWE https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SWE https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/DNK https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/DNK https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/NOR https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/NOR https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/FIN https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/FIN
nl 7y ago
Australia is talking about being to reduce the lockdown in 4 weeks. The Australian lockdown isn't complete - shops are still open, can go to offices if required, schools will open next term except in one state (it's holidays at the moment). The economic cost is high, but unclear how much more than Sweden. Unemployment in Sweden hit 8% in the most recent quarter[1], while Australia's is forecast to reach 10%. The IMF is forecasting -6.8% growth in Sweden[3], vs -6.7 in Australia[4] [1] https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/20/world/europe/20reuters-health-coronavirus-sweden-unemployment.html https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/20/world/europe/20re... [2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-unemployment-covid-19-treasury-figures-jobless-rate/12145542 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-unemploym... [3] https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SWE https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SWE [4] https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/AUS https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/AUS
- friendlybus 7y ago
  I dont understand the point you are making. Australia’s lockdown has been progressing and alleviating at the same rate as the rest of the world. Most countries are having a reprieve. Japan is going into lockdown lite and Australia’s economy was slowing pre covid anyway.
  - nl 7y ago
    That was in response to "Furthermore, Sweden can keep things going as they are for a long time. How long do you think Australia could keep its lockdown going?" I was giving evidence to show the impact on the Australian economy isn't obviously higher than the impact on Sweden, but with 1/10th of the number of deaths.

friendlybus 7y ago

I'm all good with Sweden doing what it wants, it's nice to see a country stand up for it's own values and culture and laws in the face of a deadly virus and find an outcome that works. Pushing a weak argument about the virtues of science as a reasoning for doing so seems a bit much. Australia will go as long as necessary, it is taking this opportunity to do the largest economic reform in 30 years. Australia relies on reform to stop itself from becoming the 'poor white trash in asia' (Lee Kuan Yew). Reductions in corporation tax, strengthening of unions and many more changes. Retail had been slowing down pre-covid and the mining is out of it's boom cycle. There has been rumblings for change coming for a while and all this lockdown is a great way to rejig the setup. We are setting up our agriculture to boom in the 30s so in the long term we should be okay.

esoterica 7y ago

The IMF predicts that Sweden's GDP is going to shrink 6.8% this year. Denmark, Norway and Finland are predicted to shrink only 6.5%, 6.3% and 6.0% respectively, despite locking down more aggressively than Sweden. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SWE https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SWE https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/DNK https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/DNK https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/NOR https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/NOR https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/FIN https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/FIN

nl 7y ago

Australia is talking about being to reduce the lockdown in 4 weeks. The Australian lockdown isn't complete - shops are still open, can go to offices if required, schools will open next term except in one state (it's holidays at the moment). The economic cost is high, but unclear how much more than Sweden. Unemployment in Sweden hit 8% in the most recent quarter[1], while Australia's is forecast to reach 10%. The IMF is forecasting -6.8% growth in Sweden[3], vs -6.7 in Australia[4] [1] https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/20/world/europe/20reuters-health-coronavirus-sweden-unemployment.html https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/20/world/europe/20re... [2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-unemployment-covid-19-treasury-figures-jobless-rate/12145542 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-unemploym... [3] https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SWE https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SWE [4] https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/AUS https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/AUS

friendlybus 7y ago
I dont understand the point you are making. Australia’s lockdown has been progressing and alleviating at the same rate as the rest of the world. Most countries are having a reprieve. Japan is going into lockdown lite and Australia’s economy was slowing pre covid anyway.
- nl 7y ago
  That was in response to "Furthermore, Sweden can keep things going as they are for a long time. How long do you think Australia could keep its lockdown going?" I was giving evidence to show the impact on the Australian economy isn't obviously higher than the impact on Sweden, but with 1/10th of the number of deaths.