3 ms·

Most countries are seeing excess mortality compared to previous years, much larger than could be explained by a bad flu year, which means that covid-19 is absol

Most countries are seeing excess mortality compared to previous years, much larger than could be explained by a bad flu year, which means that covid-19 is absolutely a real threat, we haven't seen anything like this in a hundred years, and countries should absolutely take measures to protect the population.

makomk 7y ago
The peak mortality in the UK from this might still beat the 1989 flu epidemic, and it'd probably have done so already if it wasn't for all the lockdowns, but it hasn't officially achieved even that much yet. And our lockdown was relatively late and lax compared to a lot of other countries, so much so that it's probably still a little early to see much effect on the total mortality figures. (If you're wondering "what 1989 flu epidemic", it probably wasn't well known outside or even inside the UK except amongst people who lived through it.)
- jnbiche 7y ago
  I agree. The 1957 Asian Flu pandemic is widely considered to be the worst pandemic since the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Most figures I see for UK deaths from the Asian Flu in 1957 range from 3500 (for just England and Wales) to 30,000 (which looks at just excess death in the entire UK). Most estimates I see for 1989 flu epidemic in the UK are around 30,000. COVID-19 death toll in the UK will almost certainly exceed the both of those death tolls. You're at 18,000 already, and you're likely not even at the peak of the curve yet. And almost certainly, we'll see a second wave come late fall and winter (sadly).
Bendingo 7y ago
> Most countries are seeing excess mortality compared to previous years Incorrect. Some countries are, or more accurately, a few countries.
- henrikschroder 7y ago
  Sorry, yes you are technically correct. What I meant is that most countries seeing significant numbers of people infected with coronavirus are also seeing excess mortality.
  - misun78 7y ago
    Can you point to some sources?
    - henrikschroder 7y ago
      https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... https://euromomo.eu/ https://euromomo.eu/

makomk 7y ago

The peak mortality in the UK from this might still beat the 1989 flu epidemic, and it'd probably have done so already if it wasn't for all the lockdowns, but it hasn't officially achieved even that much yet. And our lockdown was relatively late and lax compared to a lot of other countries, so much so that it's probably still a little early to see much effect on the total mortality figures. (If you're wondering "what 1989 flu epidemic", it probably wasn't well known outside or even inside the UK except amongst people who lived through it.)

jnbiche 7y ago
I agree. The 1957 Asian Flu pandemic is widely considered to be the worst pandemic since the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Most figures I see for UK deaths from the Asian Flu in 1957 range from 3500 (for just England and Wales) to 30,000 (which looks at just excess death in the entire UK). Most estimates I see for 1989 flu epidemic in the UK are around 30,000. COVID-19 death toll in the UK will almost certainly exceed the both of those death tolls. You're at 18,000 already, and you're likely not even at the peak of the curve yet. And almost certainly, we'll see a second wave come late fall and winter (sadly).

Bendingo 7y ago

> Most countries are seeing excess mortality compared to previous years Incorrect. Some countries are, or more accurately, a few countries.

henrikschroder 7y ago
Sorry, yes you are technically correct. What I meant is that most countries seeing significant numbers of people infected with coronavirus are also seeing excess mortality.
- misun78 7y ago
  Can you point to some sources?
  - henrikschroder 7y ago
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... https://euromomo.eu/ https://euromomo.eu/