4 ms·

> it breaks down when you're suddenly facing a one in a hundred years pandemic What if you're not actually facing such a thing and you only think you are becau

• henrikschroder 7y ago
  Most countries are seeing excess mortality compared to previous years, much larger than could be explained by a bad flu year, which means that covid-19 is absolutely a real threat, we haven't seen anything like this in a hundred years, and countries should absolutely take measures to protect the population.
  • makomk 7y ago
    The peak mortality in the UK from this might still beat the 1989 flu epidemic, and it'd probably have done so already if it wasn't for all the lockdowns, but it hasn't officially achieved even that much yet. And our lockdown was relatively late and lax compared to a lot of other countries, so much so that it's probably still a little early to see much effect on the total mortality figures. (If you're wondering "what 1989 flu epidemic", it probably wasn't well known outside or even inside the UK except amongst people who lived through it.)
    • jnbiche 7y ago
      I agree. The 1957 Asian Flu pandemic is widely considered to be the worst pandemic since the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Most figures I see for UK deaths from the Asian Flu in 1957 range from 3500 (for just England and Wales) to 30,000 (which looks at just excess death in the entire UK). Most estimates I see for 1989 flu epidemic in the UK are around 30,000. COVID-19 death toll in the UK will almost certainly exceed the both of those death tolls. You're at 18,000 already, and you're likely not even at the peak of the curve yet. And almost certainly, we'll see a second wave come late fall and winter (sadly).
  • Bendingo 7y ago
    > Most countries are seeing excess mortality compared to previous years Incorrect. Some countries are, or more accurately, a few countries.
    • henrikschroder 7y ago
      Sorry, yes you are technically correct. What I meant is that most countries seeing significant numbers of people infected with coronavirus are also seeing excess mortality.
      • misun78 7y ago
        Can you point to some sources?
        • henrikschroder 7y ago
          https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... https://euromomo.eu/ https://euromomo.eu/
• simonh 7y ago
  New York’s hospitals being overwhelmed, and a massive spike in excess mortality in the city isn’t an estimate. Those are real people sick and dying right now. The same with Spain and northern Italy. Those regions got hit hard too soon for lockdowns to prevent disaster. Fortunately those disasters gave us a wake up call to lock down early enough elsewhere. If we hadn’t it’s pretty clear every city or region would eventually look like them.
• jnbiche 7y ago
  Have you read the Ferguson paper? From the re-tweet you posted, I doubt it. The 1.2 million figure was the absolute highest estimate in the whole paper, and was mentioned off-hand as a worst case scenario if no preventive measures were taken. In fact, if you read his paper and look at his estimated deaths under various different interventions and time period, and the current death toll, he actually may have underestimated the death toll. Here, read the paper: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...