4 ms·

[Am Swedish and not a fan of the current policy] This evidence-driven decision making process (which is indeed the default here) works remarkably well when thi

by tpmx 7y ago

[Am Swedish and not a fan of the current policy] This evidence-driven decision making process (which is indeed the default here) works remarkably well when things are moving slowly. It kills bullshit beautifully. This is normally something I'm quite proud about. However, it breaks down so badly when you're suddenly facing a one in a hundred years pandemic and you can't act decisively 3-4 months into the pandemic because there's no evidence yet. Sweden is "peace-damaged". We haven't really had to deal with any national-level crises the since the spanish flu about 100 years ago. The last war was in 1814. 500 soldiers died. Note that the above mostly applies to national governance - this is the stuff that really gets set into code and culture over time. At a local e.g. hospital/research unit/private company level, there's fantastic innovation happening on a daily basis, just as in the rest of the world.

davidw 7y ago
This whole thing is kind of like driving a car, except that when you turn the steering wheel, nothing happens, and then two weeks later the wheels start to turn.
- simonh 7y ago
  They admit thus in the article, when they say there’s no point closing the schools. The time when doing that would have made a difference was a month ago and they didn’t do it, so the damage was done.
wyager 7y ago
> it breaks down when you're suddenly facing a one in a hundred years pandemic What if you're not actually facing such a thing and you only think you are because the initial non-scientific estimates from government "scientists" are 2 orders of magnitude off the mark, just like the last few times? https://mobile.twitter.com/amasad/status/1252824592453742598?s=20 https://mobile.twitter.com/amasad/status/1252824592453742598...
- henrikschroder 7y ago
  Most countries are seeing excess mortality compared to previous years, much larger than could be explained by a bad flu year, which means that covid-19 is absolutely a real threat, we haven't seen anything like this in a hundred years, and countries should absolutely take measures to protect the population.
  - makomk 7y ago
    The peak mortality in the UK from this might still beat the 1989 flu epidemic, and it'd probably have done so already if it wasn't for all the lockdowns, but it hasn't officially achieved even that much yet. And our lockdown was relatively late and lax compared to a lot of other countries, so much so that it's probably still a little early to see much effect on the total mortality figures. (If you're wondering "what 1989 flu epidemic", it probably wasn't well known outside or even inside the UK except amongst people who lived through it.)
    - jnbiche 7y ago
      I agree. The 1957 Asian Flu pandemic is widely considered to be the worst pandemic since the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Most figures I see for UK deaths from the Asian Flu in 1957 range from 3500 (for just England and Wales) to 30,000 (which looks at just excess death in the entire UK). Most estimates I see for 1989 flu epidemic in the UK are around 30,000. COVID-19 death toll in the UK will almost certainly exceed the both of those death tolls. You're at 18,000 already, and you're likely not even at the peak of the curve yet. And almost certainly, we'll see a second wave come late fall and winter (sadly).
  - Bendingo 7y ago
    > Most countries are seeing excess mortality compared to previous years Incorrect. Some countries are, or more accurately, a few countries.
    - henrikschroder 7y ago
      Sorry, yes you are technically correct. What I meant is that most countries seeing significant numbers of people infected with coronavirus are also seeing excess mortality.
dmurray 7y ago
> Sweden is "peace-damaged". The last sort of national crisis we had besides the spanish flu was the Swedish–Norwegian War of 1814. The second World War was definitely a national crisis. Huge military mobilisation, disruption to the iron and shipping industries including thousands of sailors dead, rationing, accidental bombings...even though Sweden was neutral that was a far bigger deal for her than the coronavirus has been.
- tpmx 7y ago
  Besides the deaths of those sailors it was a big meh.
cycomanic 7y ago
[Am living in Sweden but not Swedish] I disagree with you that this is about a "slow evidence based decision process" (paraphrasing). That is actually the most infuriating about the policy. I have encountered this quite often here, it's a "we know better than everyone else" attitude. The thing is the story they give is "we are evidence based, rational...,have the best methods", but completely ignore scientific evidence from outside Sweden. Example 1.: asymptomatic spread, despite several countries having evidence to the contrary the story here is, it's not important (in fact they slightly changed the tune is used to be negligible or nonexistent) Example 2: the chief epidemiologist has repeatedly said he "believes" the spread will go done in summer, without significant evidence. Example 3: sometimes the statements even contradict themselves. Example masks, the story (and there is actually a lot of propaganda around this) is still they don't help, because non95 masks are not completely closed. On the other hand the recommendation from the public health agency, (same who gives advice about the masks) for health workers treating covid19 patients is either goggles +mask (often there are no Googles) or visor without mask. How can a surgical mask which is not 100% tight not help, but at the same time a visor which is open to the sides is sufficient.

by tpmx 7y ago

davidw 7y ago

This whole thing is kind of like driving a car, except that when you turn the steering wheel, nothing happens, and then two weeks later the wheels start to turn.

simonh 7y ago
They admit thus in the article, when they say there’s no point closing the schools. The time when doing that would have made a difference was a month ago and they didn’t do it, so the damage was done.

wyager 7y ago

> it breaks down when you're suddenly facing a one in a hundred years pandemic What if you're not actually facing such a thing and you only think you are because the initial non-scientific estimates from government "scientists" are 2 orders of magnitude off the mark, just like the last few times? https://mobile.twitter.com/amasad/status/1252824592453742598?s=20 https://mobile.twitter.com/amasad/status/1252824592453742598...

henrikschroder 7y ago
Most countries are seeing excess mortality compared to previous years, much larger than could be explained by a bad flu year, which means that covid-19 is absolutely a real threat, we haven't seen anything like this in a hundred years, and countries should absolutely take measures to protect the population.
- makomk 7y ago
  The peak mortality in the UK from this might still beat the 1989 flu epidemic, and it'd probably have done so already if it wasn't for all the lockdowns, but it hasn't officially achieved even that much yet. And our lockdown was relatively late and lax compared to a lot of other countries, so much so that it's probably still a little early to see much effect on the total mortality figures. (If you're wondering "what 1989 flu epidemic", it probably wasn't well known outside or even inside the UK except amongst people who lived through it.)
  - jnbiche 7y ago
    I agree. The 1957 Asian Flu pandemic is widely considered to be the worst pandemic since the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Most figures I see for UK deaths from the Asian Flu in 1957 range from 3500 (for just England and Wales) to 30,000 (which looks at just excess death in the entire UK). Most estimates I see for 1989 flu epidemic in the UK are around 30,000. COVID-19 death toll in the UK will almost certainly exceed the both of those death tolls. You're at 18,000 already, and you're likely not even at the peak of the curve yet. And almost certainly, we'll see a second wave come late fall and winter (sadly).
- Bendingo 7y ago
  > Most countries are seeing excess mortality compared to previous years Incorrect. Some countries are, or more accurately, a few countries.
  - henrikschroder 7y ago
    Sorry, yes you are technically correct. What I meant is that most countries seeing significant numbers of people infected with coronavirus are also seeing excess mortality.

dmurray 7y ago

> Sweden is "peace-damaged". The last sort of national crisis we had besides the spanish flu was the Swedish–Norwegian War of 1814. The second World War was definitely a national crisis. Huge military mobilisation, disruption to the iron and shipping industries including thousands of sailors dead, rationing, accidental bombings...even though Sweden was neutral that was a far bigger deal for her than the coronavirus has been.

tpmx 7y ago
Besides the deaths of those sailors it was a big meh.

cycomanic 7y ago

[Am living in Sweden but not Swedish] I disagree with you that this is about a "slow evidence based decision process" (paraphrasing). That is actually the most infuriating about the policy. I have encountered this quite often here, it's a "we know better than everyone else" attitude. The thing is the story they give is "we are evidence based, rational...,have the best methods", but completely ignore scientific evidence from outside Sweden. Example 1.: asymptomatic spread, despite several countries having evidence to the contrary the story here is, it's not important (in fact they slightly changed the tune is used to be negligible or nonexistent) Example 2: the chief epidemiologist has repeatedly said he "believes" the spread will go done in summer, without significant evidence. Example 3: sometimes the statements even contradict themselves. Example masks, the story (and there is actually a lot of propaganda around this) is still they don't help, because non95 masks are not completely closed. On the other hand the recommendation from the public health agency, (same who gives advice about the masks) for health workers treating covid19 patients is either goggles +mask (often there are no Googles) or visor without mask. How can a surgical mask which is not 100% tight not help, but at the same time a visor which is open to the sides is sufficient.