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Had a similar discussion yesterday and I am aching for that conceptual freshness. What are all the non-Elon, non-besos plebs going to do for a day job? Our ind

Had a similar discussion yesterday and I am aching for that conceptual freshness. What are all the non-Elon, non-besos plebs going to do for a day job? Our industries are too mature for easy growth. Cars, computers, space are done for the plebs, we need another industry of easy growth to pull this ship along. If history repeats, manufacturing will become king again. In the arts with near infinite creative control lately we are seeing many retreads of past ideas, we need some great fresh ideas. Ai tooling and general purpose automation will kick off a customisable manufacturing system, but it’s not enough. Where are all the brains at.... finance?

anotheryou 6y ago
I haven't read the article yet, but I think it's just harder to reach the border of human knowledge. You have to specialize hard to reach it in a reasonable time. Sadly that makes the smart people not take general, discipline arching careers. Only in young disciplines like machine learning there is still a lot of jumping sparks for other disciplines.
- friendlybus 6y ago
  Computing had been in the works since Babbage, over hundreds of years. Once the tech was in place there was infinite jobs to be had making sure humanity could democratize and exploit computing to it's highest potential. What's coming down the hundreds-of-years pipe that we can bust open for this half-century? The 40s were famously the fighting forties, if we don't get on it we're going to be forced to take what others have in an attempt to access the infinite or stave off nihilism. Nukes are underutilized but likely to be surpassed by fusion if the recent builds and smaller experiments pay off. With infinite computing power and orders of magnitude cheaper energy we employ everybody to do the same as before but bigger and better. Material science could unlock a bunch of new avenues for improvement. Biomed is kicking off but that's unlikely to employ everybody. I can't see it all, there's gotta be something.
  - filoleg 6y ago
    Not sure how realistically viable it is, but I hope that quantum computing will bring some of that freshness back. But again, it will heavily depend on how much of it is "legit" and how much is just hype.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
petra 6y ago
Few ideas: Many personal robots and services - we'll do almost nothing. So we'll have more time for hobbies, which will need more tools etc . Building a green economy. Higher quality food more often. More healthcare, with aging etc. And maybe more emphasis on selling care. The real problem is this: why hire humans do all those jobs, when machines could do(or create substitutes) for most of those new jobs ?
- friendlybus 6y ago
  Good machines compress time for tasks. Dishwashers still need human stackers despite reducing an all day job down by the river to 3mins of stacking/unstacking dishes. Compressing design work from hours or weeks of thinking about different forms down to a few minutes of machine learning pattern recognition cpu cycles, means we have to move our knowledge work from massaging clay into new Porsche designs to higher level abstractions about what function in society cars can fulfill. The abstractions get higher, we can fit more into our time on this planet and the detailed oriented will be required to keep all of this from breaking down and succumbing to entropy. Humans at the bottom of the chain will have nothing to do except hold the world together, people falling out of work, machines breaking and money and time being wasted away on excessive drug use and manufacturing for pleasure instead of progress too much can grind this potential for new life to a halt. Agriculture is direly needed in the dirty thirties if we are to avoid repeating the hunger caused by the dust bowls in the 30s. A green base is fundamental to surviving the crash of the roaring twenties. Automating farming and increasing food production to multiple times of what the US can demand is a life saving purpose. God only hopes you have ‘nothing’ to do when it comes to crass commercial works. Building self sustainable farming for homes so that families can survive on and off grid is also has a potential for great application.

anotheryou 6y ago

I haven't read the article yet, but I think it's just harder to reach the border of human knowledge. You have to specialize hard to reach it in a reasonable time. Sadly that makes the smart people not take general, discipline arching careers. Only in young disciplines like machine learning there is still a lot of jumping sparks for other disciplines.

friendlybus 6y ago
Computing had been in the works since Babbage, over hundreds of years. Once the tech was in place there was infinite jobs to be had making sure humanity could democratize and exploit computing to it's highest potential. What's coming down the hundreds-of-years pipe that we can bust open for this half-century? The 40s were famously the fighting forties, if we don't get on it we're going to be forced to take what others have in an attempt to access the infinite or stave off nihilism. Nukes are underutilized but likely to be surpassed by fusion if the recent builds and smaller experiments pay off. With infinite computing power and orders of magnitude cheaper energy we employ everybody to do the same as before but bigger and better. Material science could unlock a bunch of new avenues for improvement. Biomed is kicking off but that's unlikely to employ everybody. I can't see it all, there's gotta be something.
- filoleg 6y ago
  Not sure how realistically viable it is, but I hope that quantum computing will bring some of that freshness back. But again, it will heavily depend on how much of it is "legit" and how much is just hype.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

petra 6y ago

Few ideas: Many personal robots and services - we'll do almost nothing. So we'll have more time for hobbies, which will need more tools etc . Building a green economy. Higher quality food more often. More healthcare, with aging etc. And maybe more emphasis on selling care. The real problem is this: why hire humans do all those jobs, when machines could do(or create substitutes) for most of those new jobs ?

friendlybus 6y ago
Good machines compress time for tasks. Dishwashers still need human stackers despite reducing an all day job down by the river to 3mins of stacking/unstacking dishes. Compressing design work from hours or weeks of thinking about different forms down to a few minutes of machine learning pattern recognition cpu cycles, means we have to move our knowledge work from massaging clay into new Porsche designs to higher level abstractions about what function in society cars can fulfill. The abstractions get higher, we can fit more into our time on this planet and the detailed oriented will be required to keep all of this from breaking down and succumbing to entropy. Humans at the bottom of the chain will have nothing to do except hold the world together, people falling out of work, machines breaking and money and time being wasted away on excessive drug use and manufacturing for pleasure instead of progress too much can grind this potential for new life to a halt. Agriculture is direly needed in the dirty thirties if we are to avoid repeating the hunger caused by the dust bowls in the 30s. A green base is fundamental to surviving the crash of the roaring twenties. Automating farming and increasing food production to multiple times of what the US can demand is a life saving purpose. God only hopes you have ‘nothing’ to do when it comes to crass commercial works. Building self sustainable farming for homes so that families can survive on and off grid is also has a potential for great application.