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I think most of the predictions about permanent changes caused by the virus will turn out to be wildly wrong. Companies will view this as a rare event that's n

I think most of the predictions about permanent changes caused by the virus will turn out to be wildly wrong. Companies will view this as a rare event that's not worth spending significant resources to prepare for. The march toward more automation will press on just as it did before the virus, governed largely by the price of labor vs. the price of automation.

AWildC182 7y ago
I agree 100%, though in reality these events happen almost yearly at this point, just not quite this widespread. In just the past few years we've seen tons of localized outbreaks such as the ebola and zika scares. It's a pretty dangerous thing to assume as a one-off.
test6554 7y ago
I think we will see a cottage industry focused on getting companies and employees certified as essential so they don't miss out on income next time around. Also around limiting companies liability in the event their policies cause employees to become infected by the next pandemic.
- ChuckNorris89 7y ago
  That's interesting. In Europe nobody with a full time job missed out on income. Most pople were at home and kept getting paid.
  - tathougies 7y ago
    He's talking about companies not people. Most unemployed Americans are getting paid their full wage. Some even get more than they would be making working.
    - TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
      Do you have a source for this? Anecdotally, most family I know that has lost their jobs haven't had their income replaced.
      - rovolo 7y ago
        They must go through their state's unemployment office. The CARES [0] act added $600 per week to state unemployment benefits, expanded unemployment coverage to self-employed workers[1], and extended the time you can stay on unemployment to 39 weeks. This is more than "full wage" for people with low incomes since it's an extra $31K/yr ($15/hr) on top of existing state unemployment benefits. It won't be more for higher incomes. It's state managed, and we definitely have a huge surge of unemployment claims to process, so your family may not have benefits yet due to the backlog of claims. Also, states may have eligibility requirements which your family members don't meet. Which category do your family members fall into? a) Have been denied unemployment b) Are in the queue for unemployment, but haven't gotten it yet c) Have unemployment, but it's less than their previous income [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_Aid,_Relief,_and_Economic_Security_Act#Unemployment_benefits https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_Aid,_Relief,_and_E... [1] https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-stimulus-package-questions-answers.html https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-stimulus-package...
mschuster91 7y ago
> Companies will view this as a rare event that's not worth spending significant resources to prepare for. Rare event? The list of pandemic/epidemic events of the last two decades alone is long. The world was simply incredibly lucky the last few times, only that the Western world ignored what happened in Asia. There's a reason why so many infections and deaths are in Western countries. With superbugs on the rise "thanks" to abuse of reserve antibiotics in farming, it's only a question of time until the world is ravaged by another pandemic.
- farseer 7y ago
  The abuse of antibiotics leads to drug resistant bacteria not viruses. These superbugs pose a different sort of public health hazard than a flu like virus such as sarscov2. More like minor surgery leads to MRSA and death. Not to mention bacteria (even super resistant ones) don't have the airborne infectiousness to cause a pandemic in this day and age. Something like the bubonic plague can easily be controlled by basic hygienic practices.
  - mschuster91 7y ago
    > Not to mention bacteria (even super resistant ones) don't have the airborne infectiousness to cause a pandemic in this day and age. Not yet, that is the point. It is only a matter of time. > Something like the bubonic plague can easily be controlled by basic hygienic practices. Agreed, but we see with coronavirus how many people (sometimes intentionally) ignore them. Besides many places even in developed nations lack basic hygienic needs, such as prisons (see e.g. https://www.coe.int/t/dg3/health/Prisonsreport_en.asp https://www.coe.int/t/dg3/health/Prisonsreport_en.asp), which leads to endemic tuberculosis outbreaks in prison inmates.
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  > the Western world ignored what happened in Asia. There's a reason why so many infections and deaths are in Western countries. Conversely, maybe Asia could make some changes to their food and wildlife handling practices so they aren't regularly introducing novel viruses to humans.
uses 7y ago
From what I've seen the thinking about permanent change is more that, massive changes are being made now, and inertia will mean those changes will stay in place, because they'll actually turn out to be better anyway. It's just that the cost of implementing or even considering those changes was too high before, but it's necessary now.
- perl4ever 7y ago
  Stickiness; hysteresis. I'm thinking of how you have something like a powder or gravel, and you shake the container and it levels out like liquid.
- WorldMaker 7y ago
  I think a lot of that is going to depend on the types of investors left in the stock market and the types of Highly Paid Consultants that Sell Their Vision after all of this. At the moment it seems equally likely that some companies come out of all of this with the "lesson" that remote work caused their downturn in productivity and stock value (who can remember that every other company experienced the same when your investors only care "what have you done lately?" and "what have you done 'proactively'?") and we'll quickly see a return to "everybody needs to be in the office together" culture back backed by the same consultants that learned the wrong lessons after Marissa Mayer's Yahoo! house cleaning and were still badly ratcheting companies towards as miserable as possible colocation strategies. It seems about 50/50 to me right now which group will prevail. At least with US public traded companies the only inertia seems to whatever shiny fad stock traders are enamored with versus whatever misery HPCs manage to sell on golf courses in C-Suite handshakes. (ETA: Some of whom, the worst stock investors and HPCs are the same people, of course.)
  - perl4ever 7y ago
    Well predicting some companies will do something can't be wrong. But working from home will expose a lot of stuff that can be done from home, a lot of employees who turn out to prefer working from home, and a lot of CEOs and accountants and so on will realize a lot of money can be saved on real estate. People are being quoted in the news along these lines, you don't have to anticipate it.
dougmwne 7y ago
I see lots of evidence that this is going to be an ongoing situation for the next several years. There are a few likely outcomes depending on the scientific outcome and the country: 1. We could invent a vaccine and discover that COVID mutates slowly enough that we get long term immunity. After mass vaccination in rich countries, the problem is basically solved after 1-2 years and life can go back to what it was in 2019. However, after 2 years of changed consumer habits and a set of companies and supply chains that will naturally adapt to the situation in the interim, the new normal might be significantly different than the old normal. Governments and international trade will have been changed. Investments in automation and telework will have been made. Some changes will be permanent. Like with WW2, 9/11 or the Great Recession, the ripples of causality will spread out for decades. 2. We could realize that the virus mutates fast enough that even with vaccines, we have a new endemic virus, possibly resembling the prevalence of the flu, but much more deadly. COVID will be one of the leading causes of death, up along with heart disease and cancer. People accept this increase in mortality and accept shortened lifespans. After several years of adjusting to the new reality, people start to just live with it. Some common activities completely lose their appeal due to the increased risk, such as theaters, concerts, travel, public transportation, and open offices. 3. We are unable to vaccinate against the virus, but continue aggressive measures to keep it from spreading a much as possible. We accept a new form of digital surveillance state that keeps us the goldilocks amount of isolated. We accept the new reality of algorithms determining our ability to live, work, and socialize. Life is increasingly lived digitally and in VR. I think it's important to consider these possibilities because of the Normalcy Bias. The best way to overcome it to to seriously consider that tomorrow will not at all be like today. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
- triceratops 7y ago
  Uh...there's also option 4. We develop antiviral drugs that work against the virus, so that survival rates improve.
  - cultus 7y ago
    Not anytime super-soon we won't. Even fast tracked, drugs take a while and often don't pan out. Chloroquine and the one Gilead developed both turned out to be duds. You're engaging in the normalcy bias.
Dwolb 7y ago
Including this one :)? Our business had seen its robotics and automation sector picking up before the pandemic hit and as other verticals have paused development plans, robotics and automation continue to press ahead. The view here is momentum for automation already existed and the pandemic is seen as one more justification for continued investment.
freepor 7y ago
Unusual and hard-to-predict events are going to more on everyone's minds. Insurance coverages will be increased. People will be more cautious and expecting the worst for 5+ years.
koheripbal 7y ago
There is definitely some impact. Our IT team has been working hard to automate some manual processes that never got focus before because the labor was cheap enough. Once those systems are developed they won't go away after the pandemic is over and those roles will likely be allowed atrophy by attrition.

AWildC182 7y ago

I agree 100%, though in reality these events happen almost yearly at this point, just not quite this widespread. In just the past few years we've seen tons of localized outbreaks such as the ebola and zika scares. It's a pretty dangerous thing to assume as a one-off.

test6554 7y ago

I think we will see a cottage industry focused on getting companies and employees certified as essential so they don't miss out on income next time around. Also around limiting companies liability in the event their policies cause employees to become infected by the next pandemic.

ChuckNorris89 7y ago
That's interesting. In Europe nobody with a full time job missed out on income. Most pople were at home and kept getting paid.
- tathougies 7y ago
  He's talking about companies not people. Most unemployed Americans are getting paid their full wage. Some even get more than they would be making working.
  - TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
    Do you have a source for this? Anecdotally, most family I know that has lost their jobs haven't had their income replaced.
    - rovolo 7y ago
      They must go through their state's unemployment office. The CARES [0] act added $600 per week to state unemployment benefits, expanded unemployment coverage to self-employed workers[1], and extended the time you can stay on unemployment to 39 weeks. This is more than "full wage" for people with low incomes since it's an extra $31K/yr ($15/hr) on top of existing state unemployment benefits. It won't be more for higher incomes. It's state managed, and we definitely have a huge surge of unemployment claims to process, so your family may not have benefits yet due to the backlog of claims. Also, states may have eligibility requirements which your family members don't meet. Which category do your family members fall into? a) Have been denied unemployment b) Are in the queue for unemployment, but haven't gotten it yet c) Have unemployment, but it's less than their previous income [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_Aid,_Relief,_and_Economic_Security_Act#Unemployment_benefits https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_Aid,_Relief,_and_E... [1] https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-stimulus-package-questions-answers.html https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-stimulus-package...

mschuster91 7y ago

> Companies will view this as a rare event that's not worth spending significant resources to prepare for. Rare event? The list of pandemic/epidemic events of the last two decades alone is long. The world was simply incredibly lucky the last few times, only that the Western world ignored what happened in Asia. There's a reason why so many infections and deaths are in Western countries. With superbugs on the rise "thanks" to abuse of reserve antibiotics in farming, it's only a question of time until the world is ravaged by another pandemic.

farseer 7y ago
The abuse of antibiotics leads to drug resistant bacteria not viruses. These superbugs pose a different sort of public health hazard than a flu like virus such as sarscov2. More like minor surgery leads to MRSA and death. Not to mention bacteria (even super resistant ones) don't have the airborne infectiousness to cause a pandemic in this day and age. Something like the bubonic plague can easily be controlled by basic hygienic practices.
- mschuster91 7y ago
  > Not to mention bacteria (even super resistant ones) don't have the airborne infectiousness to cause a pandemic in this day and age. Not yet, that is the point. It is only a matter of time. > Something like the bubonic plague can easily be controlled by basic hygienic practices. Agreed, but we see with coronavirus how many people (sometimes intentionally) ignore them. Besides many places even in developed nations lack basic hygienic needs, such as prisons (see e.g. https://www.coe.int/t/dg3/health/Prisonsreport_en.asp https://www.coe.int/t/dg3/health/Prisonsreport_en.asp), which leads to endemic tuberculosis outbreaks in prison inmates.
rootusrootus 7y ago
> the Western world ignored what happened in Asia. There's a reason why so many infections and deaths are in Western countries. Conversely, maybe Asia could make some changes to their food and wildlife handling practices so they aren't regularly introducing novel viruses to humans.

uses 7y ago

From what I've seen the thinking about permanent change is more that, massive changes are being made now, and inertia will mean those changes will stay in place, because they'll actually turn out to be better anyway. It's just that the cost of implementing or even considering those changes was too high before, but it's necessary now.

perl4ever 7y ago
Stickiness; hysteresis. I'm thinking of how you have something like a powder or gravel, and you shake the container and it levels out like liquid.
WorldMaker 7y ago
I think a lot of that is going to depend on the types of investors left in the stock market and the types of Highly Paid Consultants that Sell Their Vision after all of this. At the moment it seems equally likely that some companies come out of all of this with the "lesson" that remote work caused their downturn in productivity and stock value (who can remember that every other company experienced the same when your investors only care "what have you done lately?" and "what have you done 'proactively'?") and we'll quickly see a return to "everybody needs to be in the office together" culture back backed by the same consultants that learned the wrong lessons after Marissa Mayer's Yahoo! house cleaning and were still badly ratcheting companies towards as miserable as possible colocation strategies. It seems about 50/50 to me right now which group will prevail. At least with US public traded companies the only inertia seems to whatever shiny fad stock traders are enamored with versus whatever misery HPCs manage to sell on golf courses in C-Suite handshakes. (ETA: Some of whom, the worst stock investors and HPCs are the same people, of course.)
- perl4ever 7y ago
  Well predicting some companies will do something can't be wrong. But working from home will expose a lot of stuff that can be done from home, a lot of employees who turn out to prefer working from home, and a lot of CEOs and accountants and so on will realize a lot of money can be saved on real estate. People are being quoted in the news along these lines, you don't have to anticipate it.

dougmwne 7y ago

I see lots of evidence that this is going to be an ongoing situation for the next several years. There are a few likely outcomes depending on the scientific outcome and the country: 1. We could invent a vaccine and discover that COVID mutates slowly enough that we get long term immunity. After mass vaccination in rich countries, the problem is basically solved after 1-2 years and life can go back to what it was in 2019. However, after 2 years of changed consumer habits and a set of companies and supply chains that will naturally adapt to the situation in the interim, the new normal might be significantly different than the old normal. Governments and international trade will have been changed. Investments in automation and telework will have been made. Some changes will be permanent. Like with WW2, 9/11 or the Great Recession, the ripples of causality will spread out for decades. 2. We could realize that the virus mutates fast enough that even with vaccines, we have a new endemic virus, possibly resembling the prevalence of the flu, but much more deadly. COVID will be one of the leading causes of death, up along with heart disease and cancer. People accept this increase in mortality and accept shortened lifespans. After several years of adjusting to the new reality, people start to just live with it. Some common activities completely lose their appeal due to the increased risk, such as theaters, concerts, travel, public transportation, and open offices. 3. We are unable to vaccinate against the virus, but continue aggressive measures to keep it from spreading a much as possible. We accept a new form of digital surveillance state that keeps us the goldilocks amount of isolated. We accept the new reality of algorithms determining our ability to live, work, and socialize. Life is increasingly lived digitally and in VR. I think it's important to consider these possibilities because of the Normalcy Bias. The best way to overcome it to to seriously consider that tomorrow will not at all be like today. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

triceratops 7y ago
Uh...there's also option 4. We develop antiviral drugs that work against the virus, so that survival rates improve.
- cultus 7y ago
  Not anytime super-soon we won't. Even fast tracked, drugs take a while and often don't pan out. Chloroquine and the one Gilead developed both turned out to be duds. You're engaging in the normalcy bias.

Dwolb 7y ago

Including this one :)? Our business had seen its robotics and automation sector picking up before the pandemic hit and as other verticals have paused development plans, robotics and automation continue to press ahead. The view here is momentum for automation already existed and the pandemic is seen as one more justification for continued investment.

freepor 7y ago

Unusual and hard-to-predict events are going to more on everyone's minds. Insurance coverages will be increased. People will be more cautious and expecting the worst for 5+ years.

koheripbal 7y ago

There is definitely some impact. Our IT team has been working hard to automate some manual processes that never got focus before because the labor was cheap enough. Once those systems are developed they won't go away after the pandemic is over and those roles will likely be allowed atrophy by attrition.