4 ms·
The first sentence of the paper cites a reference for a claim, but the reference doesn't support the claim at all. That's an immediate rejection of the paper fr
by kens 7y ago
The first sentence of the paper cites a reference for a claim, but the reference doesn't support the claim at all. That's an immediate rejection of the paper from me.
Specifically, the paper says "Symptomatic Covid-19 disease (as caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus) is observed in 2.5 percent of infected individuals [2]". That's an interesting claim, so I checked the reference.
Reference 2 explicitly says "All estimates are based on persons who developed symptoms, and this work makes no inferences about asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2." In other words, the reference does not describe what percentage of infected individuals show symptomatic disease. The 2.5% number apparently comes from the reference's estimate that "fewer than 2.5% of infected persons will display symptoms within 2.2 days of exposure." (Symptoms show up after a median of 5.5 days.)
Thus, the paper claims 2.5% of infected individuals have symptomatic disease, but the reference to support the claim says that 2.5% of infected individuals with symptoms show symptoms within 2.2 days!
My conclusion is that the paper is misusing references, either carelessly or maliciously. Reading a paper like that is a waste of time, since you can't trust anything it says without checking every reference.
[2]: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period...
- Aissen 7y agoThis is a preprint. This sentence could be modified and not change the core claim of the paper. What's interesting is studying the data on which this is based (some commenters yesterday said it made a few mistakes https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22935451 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22935451 ; but without enough details to dismiss the paper entirely), and the other papers (this is not the first) which have similar claims. The doctors are rushing to share their core (incomplete) data to have others study it. In normal times, this type of study would stay hidden for months (I've heard up to two years for some niche domains) so that everything could be checked, re-checked, and editors could fix the introduction mistakes. We aren't in normal times.