3 ms·

To back this up with some data, this article has information about tests per capita: https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coron

by yoden 6y ago

To back this up with some data, this article has information about tests per capita: https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figur... If Sweeden had been testing at the rate of Norway or Germany, they would not be in the middle of that cases per capita graph. This is despite Sweeden's infection growth being ~15 days behind Italy's, e.g. enough time for a lockdown to have almost entirely prevented it. So it seems clear that Sweeden's policies have made infections worse. The questions that remain are: 1) Will their peak infection rate go over hospital capacity? 2) Will they have economic benefits from having population immunity faster?

senderista 6y ago
As Tegnell points out, the relevant comparison is death rates after the epidemic has run its course, say after a year or so. Lockdown just delays some of the infections to buy time for additional mitigations which will hopefully decrease the total number of deaths. The virus will still eventually spread through the population until herd immunity is reached.
- cycrutchfield 6y ago
  This ignores hospital capacity, which is the most important consideration when projecting out fatality rates. Lockdowns are not just about buying time for additional mitigations.
  - CuriousSkeptic 6y ago
    And the ICU load has hovered around 80% the last couple of weeks. Which was the goal of the chosen strategy. Current goal is to keep things below that while things develop
  - senderista 6y ago
    One of those mitigations is increasing hospital surge capacity.
henrikschroder 6y ago
> Will their peak infection rate go over hospital capacity? https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/ https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-i... First bar graph is total number of patients with covid-19 in ICU care in Sweden. Blue is yesterday's numbers, orange is today's numbers, including backdating of cases. So probably not, is the answer to your question.

by yoden 6y ago

senderista 6y ago

As Tegnell points out, the relevant comparison is death rates after the epidemic has run its course, say after a year or so. Lockdown just delays some of the infections to buy time for additional mitigations which will hopefully decrease the total number of deaths. The virus will still eventually spread through the population until herd immunity is reached.

cycrutchfield 6y ago
This ignores hospital capacity, which is the most important consideration when projecting out fatality rates. Lockdowns are not just about buying time for additional mitigations.
- CuriousSkeptic 6y ago
  And the ICU load has hovered around 80% the last couple of weeks. Which was the goal of the chosen strategy. Current goal is to keep things below that while things develop
- senderista 6y ago
  One of those mitigations is increasing hospital surge capacity.

henrikschroder 6y ago

> Will their peak infection rate go over hospital capacity? https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/ https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-i... First bar graph is total number of patients with covid-19 in ICU care in Sweden. Blue is yesterday's numbers, orange is today's numbers, including backdating of cases. So probably not, is the answer to your question.