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With such an enormously high r0 as currently predicted, completely stopping the virus once firmly established is an impossibility, but many examples e.g. Finlan

With such an enormously high r0 as currently predicted, completely stopping the virus once firmly established is an impossibility, but many examples e.g. Finland and Korea have shown that you can seriously reduce infections and deaths. There's no reason a lockdown followed by extensive testing shouldn't work, and indeed it _has_ worked in countries such as Korea and Taiwan. In fact, it worked in Hong Kong and Canada during the original SARS epidemic. There has to be a willingness to act early and responsibly, closing your borders, attempting to isolate highly infected areas, and slowing the spread of the disease as you dramatically ramp up testing. It seems as if the Western world has complete amnesia of previous events like SARS and is throwing caution to the wind as they assert that nothing could have been done to prevent this.

hcknwscommenter 7y ago
It's a policy choice to allow all of the reaction to work through the private sector instead of just deploying a national response strategy. In the U.S., the CDC tried to take the lead on testing (good) and essentially banned any other testing infrastructure (bad) and fell on its face with contamination issues (very bad), and pivoting to opening the testing infrastructure was a good policy choice. But the real answer has always been: DO BOTH. The CDC could be doing a million tests a day right now. Why don't they? It's madness.
- heretoo 7y ago
  Reminds me of "Contact". Why build one, when you can build two for twice the price? :)
- makomk 7y ago
  The reason the CDC aren't doing a million tests a day right now is because there is a massive global shortage of every single consumable needed to do this and no easy way to expand manufacturing. Even Germany, which has pretty much the best testing capacity for coronavirus of any country out there in per-capita terms, has been stalled at about 50,000 tests per day for a few weeks and it's not for any lack of desire to expand that. Trusted American media institutions like the New York Times and their Editorial Board have been giving people wildly overblown ideas about what would be possible if it wasn't for the hated Trump and his incompetence for stupid, partisan reasons.
  - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
    There is no doubt that there are shortages of some consumables; namely the swab. But every single? That is utter nonsense. The lysis reagents, extraction reagents, nucleotides, enzymes, primers probes etc. are available today by the metric tonne. The swab shortage could be designed around, but they don't. No one wants to go out on a limb and glue a Q-tip to the end of a thin flexible coffee stirrer, but i bet you it would work. Something thinner in all dimensions and one-piece would be better. Are we really ready to believe that this marvel of swab technology can't be produced at scale in a minimal amount of time from scratch? That we really are screwed because they are largely made in Northern Italy?
deleted 7y ago
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joosymoosy 7y ago
Hong Kong had 300 deaths from SARS, they had over 600 suicides above the average during the same period. This time around they are keeping businesses open
- octodog 7y ago
  Two points: - Your numbers don't indicate the number of lives saved by shutting down. It could well have been more than 600. - It seems likely that it is possible to reduce the number of suicides in such an event with better planning and support for vulnerable people.
  - joosymoosy 7y ago
    their experts conclude they overacted with how they dealt with SARS
- doliveira 7y ago
  Okay, so mathematically proven that for every life lost to a respiratory disease two more will commit suicide. Impeccable math of yours.
  - joosymoosy 7y ago
    can't tell if you're stupid or just shitty at something you don't like~
DiogenesKynikos 7y ago
China is the most prominent example of how dramatic an effect quarantines and social distancing can have. There was a massive outbreak in Wuhan, with tens of thousands sick. Two months later, there were almost no new cases. Extensive testing and contact tracing currently seems to be keeping case numbers under control. We'll see if they eventually have to go back into lockdown mode, but for the moment, it looks like the measures taken turned things around.
- Mediterraneo10 7y ago
  In Wuhan, the army was called in. Roads out of the city were not only blocked off but actually torn up in some places. People were strictly limited to their housing blocks and had to await food deliveries. The Chinese state was able to rely on the fact that each apartment block already had its appointed minor Communist Party official who could ensure discipline. The population already had a single government-controlled app for communications, and this could easily be upgraded to show the three-colour health code before citizens were allowed to move anywhere in public. A lockdown so strict simply would not work in most Western countries. The legislation is simply not there for that, even with the emergency powers that some authorities have, and enacting such legislation would require time and debate. Also, China was deeply concerned with protecting its elderly people due to such ingrained cultural respect for the elderly, but in other countries citizens may well feel that, if the army has to be called in, better that the army help with triaging and disposing of the mainly elderly victims than enforcing a crackdown on the population at large.
logicchains 7y ago
> lockdown followed by extensive testing shouldn't work, and indeed it _has_ worked in countries such as Korea and Taiwan Korea and Taiwan had no "lockdown", they had contact tracing and targeted quarantine. They never closed non-essential businesses, and Korea didn't even ban flights.

hcknwscommenter 7y ago

It's a policy choice to allow all of the reaction to work through the private sector instead of just deploying a national response strategy. In the U.S., the CDC tried to take the lead on testing (good) and essentially banned any other testing infrastructure (bad) and fell on its face with contamination issues (very bad), and pivoting to opening the testing infrastructure was a good policy choice. But the real answer has always been: DO BOTH. The CDC could be doing a million tests a day right now. Why don't they? It's madness.

heretoo 7y ago
Reminds me of "Contact". Why build one, when you can build two for twice the price? :)
makomk 7y ago
The reason the CDC aren't doing a million tests a day right now is because there is a massive global shortage of every single consumable needed to do this and no easy way to expand manufacturing. Even Germany, which has pretty much the best testing capacity for coronavirus of any country out there in per-capita terms, has been stalled at about 50,000 tests per day for a few weeks and it's not for any lack of desire to expand that. Trusted American media institutions like the New York Times and their Editorial Board have been giving people wildly overblown ideas about what would be possible if it wasn't for the hated Trump and his incompetence for stupid, partisan reasons.
- hcknwscommenter 7y ago
  There is no doubt that there are shortages of some consumables; namely the swab. But every single? That is utter nonsense. The lysis reagents, extraction reagents, nucleotides, enzymes, primers probes etc. are available today by the metric tonne. The swab shortage could be designed around, but they don't. No one wants to go out on a limb and glue a Q-tip to the end of a thin flexible coffee stirrer, but i bet you it would work. Something thinner in all dimensions and one-piece would be better. Are we really ready to believe that this marvel of swab technology can't be produced at scale in a minimal amount of time from scratch? That we really are screwed because they are largely made in Northern Italy?

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

joosymoosy 7y ago

Hong Kong had 300 deaths from SARS, they had over 600 suicides above the average during the same period. This time around they are keeping businesses open

octodog 7y ago
Two points: - Your numbers don't indicate the number of lives saved by shutting down. It could well have been more than 600. - It seems likely that it is possible to reduce the number of suicides in such an event with better planning and support for vulnerable people.
- joosymoosy 7y ago
  their experts conclude they overacted with how they dealt with SARS
doliveira 7y ago
Okay, so mathematically proven that for every life lost to a respiratory disease two more will commit suicide. Impeccable math of yours.
- joosymoosy 7y ago
  can't tell if you're stupid or just shitty at something you don't like~

DiogenesKynikos 7y ago

China is the most prominent example of how dramatic an effect quarantines and social distancing can have. There was a massive outbreak in Wuhan, with tens of thousands sick. Two months later, there were almost no new cases. Extensive testing and contact tracing currently seems to be keeping case numbers under control. We'll see if they eventually have to go back into lockdown mode, but for the moment, it looks like the measures taken turned things around.

Mediterraneo10 7y ago
In Wuhan, the army was called in. Roads out of the city were not only blocked off but actually torn up in some places. People were strictly limited to their housing blocks and had to await food deliveries. The Chinese state was able to rely on the fact that each apartment block already had its appointed minor Communist Party official who could ensure discipline. The population already had a single government-controlled app for communications, and this could easily be upgraded to show the three-colour health code before citizens were allowed to move anywhere in public. A lockdown so strict simply would not work in most Western countries. The legislation is simply not there for that, even with the emergency powers that some authorities have, and enacting such legislation would require time and debate. Also, China was deeply concerned with protecting its elderly people due to such ingrained cultural respect for the elderly, but in other countries citizens may well feel that, if the army has to be called in, better that the army help with triaging and disposing of the mainly elderly victims than enforcing a crackdown on the population at large.

logicchains 7y ago

> lockdown followed by extensive testing shouldn't work, and indeed it _has_ worked in countries such as Korea and Taiwan Korea and Taiwan had no "lockdown", they had contact tracing and targeted quarantine. They never closed non-essential businesses, and Korea didn't even ban flights.