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Even if you assume 100% of the population will eventually be infected, the final percentage will have a much easier time and chance of recovery than the first o

Even if you assume 100% of the population will eventually be infected, the final percentage will have a much easier time and chance of recovery than the first ones because of what we've learned as time goes on, even without a vaccine. In fact, they're already learning better ways to treat the disease. The stupidity of saying, "We really can't do much right now, so fuck it" is unbelievably irresponsible. If you knew you were definitely going to get the virus, when would you rather it happen, right now or a year from now? Sweden is essentially saying it doesn't matter.

war1025 7y ago
> We really can't do much right now, so fuck it" For many people it's more of "I can take my chances relying on the government when I'm not allowed to work" or "I can take my chances catching a virus that is probably coming for me anyway" Locking down doesn't terribly help vulnerable populations. It's only advantage is that it keeps people who were less likely to catch it to begin with from catching it, and as a result reduces the hospital load. Here in Iowa the majority of outbreaks are either in nursing homes or meat packing plants. Locking down does nothing to help them. We could shut down the meat packing plants, but then we kill the food supply chain, which is a disaster for everyone. Nursing homes are basically sitting ducks no matter what. If it's a fire we can't put out except by letting it burn through, then our best choice is to open up to the point that we are burning at maximum capacity. Hospitals here are laying off workers because they aren't allowed to do anything except wait for a crash of Covid-19 patients that so far hasn't come. If the bottleneck is the hospitals like people have been saying all along, then hospitals being so empty they can't even pay their staff means we have gone to far.
- kyawzazaw 7y ago
  Wouldn't a lockdown translate to limiting the nursing homes' exposure to the virus?
  - war1025 7y ago
    That's the theory, but it has proved pretty ineffective in practice. Nurses don't live onsite, so there is no actual way to seal the residents off from the outside world. Once it gets in you're no better off than had there not been a lockdown in place.
- greedo 7y ago
  Do you have any links to reports of hospital layoffs? I too live in the Midwest and haven't seen any, though midwestern news sites are atrocious unless it has to do with football.
  - war1025 7y ago
    There have been several stories, including one just yesterday where one of the main hospital groups in the state (Unity Point Health) is laying off / furloughing employees. Here is a story directly related to it though [1]. """ "The loss of revenue over the last few weeks due to the inability to provide non-emergency care is destabilizing core health services in rural America," the NRHA said. """ [1] https://www.iowapublicradio.org/post/small-town-hospitals-are-closing-just-coronavirus-arrives-rural-america https://www.iowapublicradio.org/post/small-town-hospitals-ar... Edit: Here [2] is a link to a "live blog" post, so it's sort of a moving target, but under "11:00 am Tuesday" there is this headline: "UnityPoint Health announces cuts to staff hours and pay" [2] https://www.iowapublicradio.org/post/liveblog-tyson-foods-suspends-waterloo-operations-iowa-bars-and-restaurants-project-closures https://www.iowapublicradio.org/post/liveblog-tyson-foods-su...
    - greedo 7y ago
      Okay, you said "Hospitals here are laying off workers because they aren't allowed to do anything except wait for a crash of Covid-19 patients that so far hasn't come." You're in Iowa, yet the first link is an extremely small hospital in Tennessee. The second link refers to a Unitypoint Health which has operations in several states. Hospitals are losing revenue for elective surgery. UP Health is cutting doctors pay 15%, and furloughing some other employees. Not sure if those are medical providers or administrative staff. And saying that we're waiting for "a crash of Covid-19 patients that so far hasn't come." is not factually accurate, even in the Midwest. I can name several hospitals in Nebraska that are so full, they're using the ER for non-COVID patients since the COVID patients have filled entire wings. Here's an article about Grand Island, one of Nebraska's hotspots. The article is 8 days old, and the situation has become worse. https://www.omaha.com/livewellnebraska/our-resources-are-being-tested-grand-island-hospitals-icu-is-filling-up-fast/article_b2d1cf40-c2b1-5688-8059-af65a0cdd330.html https://www.omaha.com/livewellnebraska/our-resources-are-bei... For Omaha/Bellevue, Bellevue Medical Center is using the ER due to a lack of rooms.
Reimersholme 7y ago
The question is how long you can hold off people getting infected. Sure, a complete lock down for 1-2 months will delay it but for how long? You guessed it - 1-2 months... At the same time you'll crash the economy completely. Was it worth it? "In fact, all the uncertainties around the future of this pandemic are part of the motivation for Sweden opting for a liberal approach. We have to plan for strong social distancing measures to remain in place for a long time and they won’t work if they are harder than necessary." https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-l...

war1025 7y ago

> We really can't do much right now, so fuck it" For many people it's more of "I can take my chances relying on the government when I'm not allowed to work" or "I can take my chances catching a virus that is probably coming for me anyway" Locking down doesn't terribly help vulnerable populations. It's only advantage is that it keeps people who were less likely to catch it to begin with from catching it, and as a result reduces the hospital load. Here in Iowa the majority of outbreaks are either in nursing homes or meat packing plants. Locking down does nothing to help them. We could shut down the meat packing plants, but then we kill the food supply chain, which is a disaster for everyone. Nursing homes are basically sitting ducks no matter what. If it's a fire we can't put out except by letting it burn through, then our best choice is to open up to the point that we are burning at maximum capacity. Hospitals here are laying off workers because they aren't allowed to do anything except wait for a crash of Covid-19 patients that so far hasn't come. If the bottleneck is the hospitals like people have been saying all along, then hospitals being so empty they can't even pay their staff means we have gone to far.

kyawzazaw 7y ago
Wouldn't a lockdown translate to limiting the nursing homes' exposure to the virus?
- war1025 7y ago
  That's the theory, but it has proved pretty ineffective in practice. Nurses don't live onsite, so there is no actual way to seal the residents off from the outside world. Once it gets in you're no better off than had there not been a lockdown in place.
greedo 7y ago
Do you have any links to reports of hospital layoffs? I too live in the Midwest and haven't seen any, though midwestern news sites are atrocious unless it has to do with football.
- war1025 7y ago
  There have been several stories, including one just yesterday where one of the main hospital groups in the state (Unity Point Health) is laying off / furloughing employees. Here is a story directly related to it though [1]. """ "The loss of revenue over the last few weeks due to the inability to provide non-emergency care is destabilizing core health services in rural America," the NRHA said. """ [1] https://www.iowapublicradio.org/post/small-town-hospitals-are-closing-just-coronavirus-arrives-rural-america https://www.iowapublicradio.org/post/small-town-hospitals-ar... Edit: Here [2] is a link to a "live blog" post, so it's sort of a moving target, but under "11:00 am Tuesday" there is this headline: "UnityPoint Health announces cuts to staff hours and pay" [2] https://www.iowapublicradio.org/post/liveblog-tyson-foods-suspends-waterloo-operations-iowa-bars-and-restaurants-project-closures https://www.iowapublicradio.org/post/liveblog-tyson-foods-su...
  - greedo 7y ago
    Okay, you said "Hospitals here are laying off workers because they aren't allowed to do anything except wait for a crash of Covid-19 patients that so far hasn't come." You're in Iowa, yet the first link is an extremely small hospital in Tennessee. The second link refers to a Unitypoint Health which has operations in several states. Hospitals are losing revenue for elective surgery. UP Health is cutting doctors pay 15%, and furloughing some other employees. Not sure if those are medical providers or administrative staff. And saying that we're waiting for "a crash of Covid-19 patients that so far hasn't come." is not factually accurate, even in the Midwest. I can name several hospitals in Nebraska that are so full, they're using the ER for non-COVID patients since the COVID patients have filled entire wings. Here's an article about Grand Island, one of Nebraska's hotspots. The article is 8 days old, and the situation has become worse. https://www.omaha.com/livewellnebraska/our-resources-are-being-tested-grand-island-hospitals-icu-is-filling-up-fast/article_b2d1cf40-c2b1-5688-8059-af65a0cdd330.html https://www.omaha.com/livewellnebraska/our-resources-are-bei... For Omaha/Bellevue, Bellevue Medical Center is using the ER due to a lack of rooms.

Reimersholme 7y ago

The question is how long you can hold off people getting infected. Sure, a complete lock down for 1-2 months will delay it but for how long? You guessed it - 1-2 months... At the same time you'll crash the economy completely. Was it worth it? "In fact, all the uncertainties around the future of this pandemic are part of the motivation for Sweden opting for a liberal approach. We have to plan for strong social distancing measures to remain in place for a long time and they won’t work if they are harder than necessary." https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-l...