5 ms·

Cases are a poor metric because they're a function of per-capita testing, which is variable across nations. You have to go by deaths. In that case you can see t

Cases are a poor metric because they're a function of per-capita testing, which is variable across nations. You have to go by deaths. In that case you can see that they're much worse than their neighbors Norway and Finland, and that they're closer to regions with catastrophic death rates like Switzerland. The earlier lockdown measures are imposed, the greater the impact, hence the comparatively excellent numbers from Finland. Sweden has long held denial of asymptomatic transmission (especially by Tegnell, even in this article), which we've learned is categorically wrong. The IHME model has been considered notoriously optimistic, as the US number of deaths has been rising but the US peak is reported as 1 week ago. The IHME model assumes a full lockdown in the US until August, which has already been violated by a number of US states this week.

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yoden 7y ago
To back this up with some data, this article has information about tests per capita: https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figur... If Sweeden had been testing at the rate of Norway or Germany, they would not be in the middle of that cases per capita graph. This is despite Sweeden's infection growth being ~15 days behind Italy's, e.g. enough time for a lockdown to have almost entirely prevented it. So it seems clear that Sweeden's policies have made infections worse. The questions that remain are: 1) Will their peak infection rate go over hospital capacity? 2) Will they have economic benefits from having population immunity faster?
- senderista 7y ago
  As Tegnell points out, the relevant comparison is death rates after the epidemic has run its course, say after a year or so. Lockdown just delays some of the infections to buy time for additional mitigations which will hopefully decrease the total number of deaths. The virus will still eventually spread through the population until herd immunity is reached.
  - cycrutchfield 7y ago
    This ignores hospital capacity, which is the most important consideration when projecting out fatality rates. Lockdowns are not just about buying time for additional mitigations.
    - CuriousSkeptic 7y ago
      And the ICU load has hovered around 80% the last couple of weeks. Which was the goal of the chosen strategy. Current goal is to keep things below that while things develop
    - senderista 7y ago
      One of those mitigations is increasing hospital surge capacity.
- henrikschroder 7y ago
  > Will their peak infection rate go over hospital capacity? https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/ https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-i... First bar graph is total number of patients with covid-19 in ICU care in Sweden. Blue is yesterday's numbers, orange is today's numbers, including backdating of cases. So probably not, is the answer to your question.
piva00 7y ago
Sweden's death counts are the most statistical precise ones so far, exactly because every death from someone tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 is counted as a death from CoViD-19. No other country is doing this, you can check that by following metrics such as "excess deaths" after seasonally adjusting deaths by country and adding their official death tolls [0]. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22945974 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22945974
- mamon 7y ago
  >>> Sweden's death counts are the most statistical precise ones so far, exactly because every death from someone tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 is counted as a death from CoViD-19. So if the 95 years old who already withstood 3 heart attacks dies from the 4th one, and he tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 you then blame his death on CoVID-19, and not on his weak heart? Doesn't make much sense to me.
  - piva00 7y ago
    It makes sense when you think that this removes the individual variation per hospital/doctor writing a death certificate, you don't rely on professional opinion, you count all of them as it is easier to later clean this statistic with models based on historical data than the opposite (to figure out the missing data for deaths from CoViD-19 after the fact). You need to be aware that Sweden has a long history of keeping demographical statistics [0] so there is a method to the apparent madness of counting. [0] https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/main-activity/history-of-statistics-sweden/ https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/main-activity/history-of-stat...

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yoden 7y ago

To back this up with some data, this article has information about tests per capita: https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figur... If Sweeden had been testing at the rate of Norway or Germany, they would not be in the middle of that cases per capita graph. This is despite Sweeden's infection growth being ~15 days behind Italy's, e.g. enough time for a lockdown to have almost entirely prevented it. So it seems clear that Sweeden's policies have made infections worse. The questions that remain are: 1) Will their peak infection rate go over hospital capacity? 2) Will they have economic benefits from having population immunity faster?

senderista 7y ago
As Tegnell points out, the relevant comparison is death rates after the epidemic has run its course, say after a year or so. Lockdown just delays some of the infections to buy time for additional mitigations which will hopefully decrease the total number of deaths. The virus will still eventually spread through the population until herd immunity is reached.
- cycrutchfield 7y ago
  This ignores hospital capacity, which is the most important consideration when projecting out fatality rates. Lockdowns are not just about buying time for additional mitigations.
  - CuriousSkeptic 7y ago
    And the ICU load has hovered around 80% the last couple of weeks. Which was the goal of the chosen strategy. Current goal is to keep things below that while things develop
  - senderista 7y ago
    One of those mitigations is increasing hospital surge capacity.
henrikschroder 7y ago
> Will their peak infection rate go over hospital capacity? https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-intensivvard/ https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-i... First bar graph is total number of patients with covid-19 in ICU care in Sweden. Blue is yesterday's numbers, orange is today's numbers, including backdating of cases. So probably not, is the answer to your question.

piva00 7y ago

Sweden's death counts are the most statistical precise ones so far, exactly because every death from someone tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 is counted as a death from CoViD-19. No other country is doing this, you can check that by following metrics such as "excess deaths" after seasonally adjusting deaths by country and adding their official death tolls [0]. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22945974 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22945974

mamon 7y ago
>>> Sweden's death counts are the most statistical precise ones so far, exactly because every death from someone tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 is counted as a death from CoViD-19. So if the 95 years old who already withstood 3 heart attacks dies from the 4th one, and he tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 you then blame his death on CoVID-19, and not on his weak heart? Doesn't make much sense to me.
- piva00 7y ago
  It makes sense when you think that this removes the individual variation per hospital/doctor writing a death certificate, you don't rely on professional opinion, you count all of them as it is easier to later clean this statistic with models based on historical data than the opposite (to figure out the missing data for deaths from CoViD-19 after the fact). You need to be aware that Sweden has a long history of keeping demographical statistics [0] so there is a method to the apparent madness of counting. [0] https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/main-activity/history-of-statistics-sweden/ https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/main-activity/history-of-stat...