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It sounds exactly what the UK was going to do until Imperial released a report that said it wouldn’t work.

by jon889 6y ago

jeltz 6y ago
For now Sweden has slightly fewer deaths per capita than the UK, so their last minute change does not seem to have helped much. While I was and still am in favor of a harsher lockdown the Swedish strategy does not seem to perform that badly. There are countries with harsh lockdown doing both doing way worse and way better, so other factors may matter more.
- jon889 6y ago
  I think the reason for that is that British people are less trusting of the government and will generally ignore rules if it doesn’t make sense to them unless they’re mandatory. Even the prime ministers dad said he’d still go to the pub just before the lockdown.
dijit 6y ago
And Anders "debunked" imperials study because it was not yet peer reviewed[0]. While continuing with his "Scientific" gut feeling. (No, I'm not making any of what I said up or being hyperbolic[1]) The serious lack of testing and fact that many doctors are saying they cannot attach COVID-19 as a cause of death unless it is a direct cause and has been tested for, give me pause to the numbers Sweden is putting out.[2] Since if you arrive to the hospital already dead then they will not "waste a test" on you confirming cause of death. I would much rather look at the Swedish death rate comparative to last year instead[3] [0]: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of-europe-lives-under-lockdown-sweden-keeps-calm-and-carries-on https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of... [1]: https://twitter.com/bjornsing/status/1252888065959436288 https://twitter.com/bjornsing/status/1252888065959436288 [2]: https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figur... [3]: https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/ https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subje...
- senderista 6y ago
  Agree, excess deaths over a suitably long period is the only metric I trust at this point, and the only one that will be able to settle the debate over the effectiveness of lockdowns.
  - SahAssar 6y ago
    Although very early data (as it is everywhere) does it not look like the stats for excess deaths and the reported COVID-19 deaths for sweden line up pretty well? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav...
- SahAssar 6y ago
  Although very early data (as it is everywhere) does it not look like the stats for excess deaths and the reported COVID-19 deaths for sweden line up pretty well? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav...
- gpderetta 6y ago
  I have no idea whether the paper is good or not, but an off-hand tangential comment in an interview is hardly a debunking. Also note that if you have to react to an emergency you might not have the luxury to wait for the data and evaluate all possibilities. Of course you should definitely reevaluate your decisions as data come in. edit: I can't see a direct comparison in your links, but FWIW euromomo [1] is showing a large spike in excess deaths for Sweden. edit2: as pointed elsethread, neighbouring Norway and Finland are seeing a very different scenario; the graphs show pretty much no excess mortality. [1] https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html

It sounds exactly what the UK was going to do until Imperial released a report that said it wouldn’t work.

by jon889 6y ago

It sounds exactly what the UK was going to do until Imperial released a report that said it wouldn’t work.

For now Sweden has slightly fewer deaths per capita than the UK, so their last minute change does not seem to have helped much. While I was and still am in favor of a harsher lockdown the Swedish strategy does not seem to perform that badly. There are countries with harsh lockdown doing both doing way worse and way better, so other factors may matter more.

jon889 6y ago
I think the reason for that is that British people are less trusting of the government and will generally ignore rules if it doesn’t make sense to them unless they’re mandatory. Even the prime ministers dad said he’d still go to the pub just before the lockdown.

dijit 6y ago

And Anders "debunked" imperials study because it was not yet peer reviewed[0]. While continuing with his "Scientific" gut feeling. (No, I'm not making any of what I said up or being hyperbolic[1]) The serious lack of testing and fact that many doctors are saying they cannot attach COVID-19 as a cause of death unless it is a direct cause and has been tested for, give me pause to the numbers Sweden is putting out.[2] Since if you arrive to the hospital already dead then they will not "waste a test" on you confirming cause of death. I would much rather look at the Swedish death rate comparative to last year instead[3] [0]: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of-europe-lives-under-lockdown-sweden-keeps-calm-and-carries-on https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of... [1]: https://twitter.com/bjornsing/status/1252888065959436288 https://twitter.com/bjornsing/status/1252888065959436288 [2]: https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figur... [3]: https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/ https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subje...

senderista 6y ago
Agree, excess deaths over a suitably long period is the only metric I trust at this point, and the only one that will be able to settle the debate over the effectiveness of lockdowns.
- SahAssar 6y ago
  Although very early data (as it is everywhere) does it not look like the stats for excess deaths and the reported COVID-19 deaths for sweden line up pretty well? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav...
SahAssar 6y ago
Although very early data (as it is everywhere) does it not look like the stats for excess deaths and the reported COVID-19 deaths for sweden line up pretty well? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav...
gpderetta 6y ago
I have no idea whether the paper is good or not, but an off-hand tangential comment in an interview is hardly a debunking. Also note that if you have to react to an emergency you might not have the luxury to wait for the data and evaluate all possibilities. Of course you should definitely reevaluate your decisions as data come in. edit: I can't see a direct comparison in your links, but FWIW euromomo [1] is showing a large spike in excess deaths for Sweden. edit2: as pointed elsethread, neighbouring Norway and Finland are seeing a very different scenario; the graphs show pretty much no excess mortality. [1] https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html