6 ms·

"We are in the middle of the epidemic" I'd love to know what metric he's basing that statement on

bigf4k332 6y ago
"pandemic" is liberalism for "i'm going to fuck your economy over until you give me what i want" liberalism is the real pandemic
prophesi 6y ago
That's probably the least controversial statement in the interview.
- erikrothoff 6y ago
  Curious to hear what you think were the most controversial statements were?
  - butler14 6y ago
    "Closing borders, in my opinion, is ridiculous, because COVID-19 is in every European country now" has to be up there Closing borders seems like a perfectly reasonable step for a great many countries. Particularly those that are vastly more connected via land-based mass transit (often directly into cities that have higher populations than the entire country of Sweden)
    - Zenbit_UX 6y ago
      Ironically, if all other borders are closed around you, then yours are effectively closed too.
      - Lewton 6y ago
        Interestingly enough, you're wrong. Denmark has closed it's border But Danes can go to Sweden, because Swedens border are open. And while Denmarks borders are closed, danes are always allowed to return home. Quite a few irresponsible danish people are going on vacations in Sweden these days
  - dijit 6y ago
    I have a few; assuming this question has been made in good faith. > I think it has been overstated how unique the approach is. As in many other countries, we aim to flatten the curve, slowing down the spread as much as possible — otherwise the health-care system and society are at risk of collapse. It is not overstated how unique the approach is, primarily because it is totally and completely unique and quite wildly so compared to not only Swedens nordic neighbours but the entire world. > there is not much legal possibility to close down cities in Sweden using the present laws. this is an argument for creation of those kinds of laws, that's the job of parliament and generally has happened in most other countries in Europe. > Around 15 people from the agency meet every morning and update decisions and recommendations according to the data collection and analysis. We talk to regional authorities twice per week. Twice per week is nothing, given that the virus has a 4-7day lag in even presenting symptoms and the exponential rate of growth, the lack of testing (it is advised _not_ to seek testing) it's not even possible to have real numbers. The whole idea of treating this as a scientific approach requires the collection of data which is not being done. I live in Sweden and what I'm witnessing is: 1) Offices have closed down, working from home is prevelant 2) Restaurants are definitely not closed, many are busting at the seams. Parks are full, social distancing measures are taken only by the few.. I wear a mask when walking around and I get scoffed at. 3) People 'trust the government' and see that there's no restrictions so they don't put any restrictions on themselves. outwardly they think they've done enough. 4) Gyms are open, my PT had COVID-19 symptoms and continued to go to the gym, she was not tested because seeking testing is discouraged. A lot of the predictive modelling is based on models made in january and assumes "influenza-grade" immunity (as in you have essentially life-time antibodies to the current strain) but there is no scientific study to defend that assertion for SARS-CoV-2. In fact new studies seem to indicate that antibodies drop off significantly within months.
    - erikrothoff 6y ago
      Yes, it was asked in good faith. With that follows some good faith follow-up questions: > It is not overstated how unique the approach is, primarily because it is totally and completely unique and quite wildly so compared to not only Swedens nordic neighbours but the entire world. AFAIU Tegnell is meaning that the swedish approach is the same in that the measures will have the same effect as complete and total lockdown, just not forced by the government? So the difference is actually quite subtle (enforced by law vs enforced by the people) or am I misunderstanding here? > this is an argument for creation of those kinds of laws, that's the job of parliament and generally has happened in most other countries in Europe. I see what you mean, but given that the experts are also saying that it is not necessary, should it be pushed through anyway? > Twice per week is nothing, given that the virus has a 4-7day lag in even presenting symptoms and the exponential rate of growth, the lack of testing (it is advised _not_ to seek testing) it's not even possible to have real numbers. If I understand your point here correctly, is that you feel that having uptodate numbers is more important than the government agencies currently do? > Twice per week is nothing, given that the virus has a 4-7day lag in even presenting symptoms and the exponential rate of growth, WHy is the 4-7 dag lag important with the twice-per-week meetings with regional authorities? > 4) Gyms are open, my PT had COVID-19 symptoms and continued to go to the gym, she was not tested because seeking testing is discouraged. Going out with symptoms is an offence so I assume your PT was told to go home? https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/expert-att-sprida-corona-kan-vara-ett-allvarligt-brott/ https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/expert-att-sprida-corona-ka... > I wear a mask when walking around and I get scoffed at. What are your thoughts on the Swedish Public Health Agency's information that masks are not needed? https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/fragor-och-svar/?exp=68690#_68690 https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utb... https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/experten-forklarar-sa-anvander-du-munskydd-och-andningsskydd-mot-corona https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/experten-forklarar-sa-anv... Just fyi, I'm also Swedish and live in Stockholm so also seeing all this first-hand. And I put a lot of faith into what the government and their agencies are saying so it's interesting to hear from someone who doesn't!
yummybear 6y ago
To be fair, in the nordic languages "middle of" something can mean "we're in the midst of an epidemic" or "we in an ongoing epidemic".
- eythian 6y ago
  This also is the same in English. Colloquially it just means you're not at the beginning or the end. "I'm in the middle of the forest" doesn't mean you're at the centre.
scythe 6y ago
The day with the most COVID-19 deaths [so far] in Sweden was yesterday. Sounds like the middle to me. Or maybe the upswing.
- viceroyalbean 6y ago
  Where are you getting that from? FHM's Covid-19 tracker [1] shows the most deaths occurring on 8/4. Of course, because there's a lag in the reporting that is likely to change over time. Either way, the data for yesterday is too incomplete to make any statements about yet. [1] https://fohm.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/68d4537bf2714e63b646c37f152f1392 https://fohm.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/6...
  - scythe 6y ago
    It's from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ Artifacts of data representation undermine the direct translation to deaths occurring on a certain day, but for the purposes of saying "middle of an outbreak" this is probably enough.
  - kzrdude 6y ago
    Two different ways to present the deaths: attributed to the date of death, or attributed to the date they were reported by FHM.
    - viceroyalbean 6y ago
      That makes sense, though I would advice against the latter way since it will show massive dips and spikes due to variation in reporting. Notably, the reports dip every weekend and there was a huge dip over Easter that took ages to get caught up.
- jeltz 6y ago
  Eh, not really. Reported deaths typically lag up to 5 days so this is mostly just that a lot of backlog was reported the same 24 hours (yesterday afternoon and this morning). Number of deaths per day have been relatively stable since the beginning of April.
sorryitstrue 6y ago
I don't think this was a statistical statement, it's colloquial. We're not at the beginning, it's not right at the end, we're "in the middle"

"pandemic" is liberalism for "i'm going to fuck your economy over until you give me what i want" liberalism is the real pandemic

prophesi 6y ago

That's probably the least controversial statement in the interview.

erikrothoff 6y ago
Curious to hear what you think were the most controversial statements were?
- butler14 6y ago
  "Closing borders, in my opinion, is ridiculous, because COVID-19 is in every European country now" has to be up there Closing borders seems like a perfectly reasonable step for a great many countries. Particularly those that are vastly more connected via land-based mass transit (often directly into cities that have higher populations than the entire country of Sweden)
  - Zenbit_UX 6y ago
    Ironically, if all other borders are closed around you, then yours are effectively closed too.
    - Lewton 6y ago
      Interestingly enough, you're wrong. Denmark has closed it's border But Danes can go to Sweden, because Swedens border are open. And while Denmarks borders are closed, danes are always allowed to return home. Quite a few irresponsible danish people are going on vacations in Sweden these days
- dijit 6y ago
  I have a few; assuming this question has been made in good faith. > I think it has been overstated how unique the approach is. As in many other countries, we aim to flatten the curve, slowing down the spread as much as possible — otherwise the health-care system and society are at risk of collapse. It is not overstated how unique the approach is, primarily because it is totally and completely unique and quite wildly so compared to not only Swedens nordic neighbours but the entire world. > there is not much legal possibility to close down cities in Sweden using the present laws. this is an argument for creation of those kinds of laws, that's the job of parliament and generally has happened in most other countries in Europe. > Around 15 people from the agency meet every morning and update decisions and recommendations according to the data collection and analysis. We talk to regional authorities twice per week. Twice per week is nothing, given that the virus has a 4-7day lag in even presenting symptoms and the exponential rate of growth, the lack of testing (it is advised _not_ to seek testing) it's not even possible to have real numbers. The whole idea of treating this as a scientific approach requires the collection of data which is not being done. I live in Sweden and what I'm witnessing is: 1) Offices have closed down, working from home is prevelant 2) Restaurants are definitely not closed, many are busting at the seams. Parks are full, social distancing measures are taken only by the few.. I wear a mask when walking around and I get scoffed at. 3) People 'trust the government' and see that there's no restrictions so they don't put any restrictions on themselves. outwardly they think they've done enough. 4) Gyms are open, my PT had COVID-19 symptoms and continued to go to the gym, she was not tested because seeking testing is discouraged. A lot of the predictive modelling is based on models made in january and assumes "influenza-grade" immunity (as in you have essentially life-time antibodies to the current strain) but there is no scientific study to defend that assertion for SARS-CoV-2. In fact new studies seem to indicate that antibodies drop off significantly within months.
  - erikrothoff 6y ago
    Yes, it was asked in good faith. With that follows some good faith follow-up questions: > It is not overstated how unique the approach is, primarily because it is totally and completely unique and quite wildly so compared to not only Swedens nordic neighbours but the entire world. AFAIU Tegnell is meaning that the swedish approach is the same in that the measures will have the same effect as complete and total lockdown, just not forced by the government? So the difference is actually quite subtle (enforced by law vs enforced by the people) or am I misunderstanding here? > this is an argument for creation of those kinds of laws, that's the job of parliament and generally has happened in most other countries in Europe. I see what you mean, but given that the experts are also saying that it is not necessary, should it be pushed through anyway? > Twice per week is nothing, given that the virus has a 4-7day lag in even presenting symptoms and the exponential rate of growth, the lack of testing (it is advised _not_ to seek testing) it's not even possible to have real numbers. If I understand your point here correctly, is that you feel that having uptodate numbers is more important than the government agencies currently do? > Twice per week is nothing, given that the virus has a 4-7day lag in even presenting symptoms and the exponential rate of growth, WHy is the 4-7 dag lag important with the twice-per-week meetings with regional authorities? > 4) Gyms are open, my PT had COVID-19 symptoms and continued to go to the gym, she was not tested because seeking testing is discouraged. Going out with symptoms is an offence so I assume your PT was told to go home? https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/expert-att-sprida-corona-kan-vara-ett-allvarligt-brott/ https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/expert-att-sprida-corona-ka... > I wear a mask when walking around and I get scoffed at. What are your thoughts on the Swedish Public Health Agency's information that masks are not needed? https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/fragor-och-svar/?exp=68690#_68690 https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utb... https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/experten-forklarar-sa-anvander-du-munskydd-och-andningsskydd-mot-corona https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/experten-forklarar-sa-anv... Just fyi, I'm also Swedish and live in Stockholm so also seeing all this first-hand. And I put a lot of faith into what the government and their agencies are saying so it's interesting to hear from someone who doesn't!

yummybear 6y ago

To be fair, in the nordic languages "middle of" something can mean "we're in the midst of an epidemic" or "we in an ongoing epidemic".

eythian 6y ago
This also is the same in English. Colloquially it just means you're not at the beginning or the end. "I'm in the middle of the forest" doesn't mean you're at the centre.

scythe 6y ago

The day with the most COVID-19 deaths [so far] in Sweden was yesterday. Sounds like the middle to me. Or maybe the upswing.

viceroyalbean 6y ago
Where are you getting that from? FHM's Covid-19 tracker [1] shows the most deaths occurring on 8/4. Of course, because there's a lag in the reporting that is likely to change over time. Either way, the data for yesterday is too incomplete to make any statements about yet. [1] https://fohm.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/68d4537bf2714e63b646c37f152f1392 https://fohm.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/6...
- scythe 6y ago
  It's from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ Artifacts of data representation undermine the direct translation to deaths occurring on a certain day, but for the purposes of saying "middle of an outbreak" this is probably enough.
- kzrdude 6y ago
  Two different ways to present the deaths: attributed to the date of death, or attributed to the date they were reported by FHM.
  - viceroyalbean 6y ago
    That makes sense, though I would advice against the latter way since it will show massive dips and spikes due to variation in reporting. Notably, the reports dip every weekend and there was a huge dip over Easter that took ages to get caught up.
jeltz 6y ago
Eh, not really. Reported deaths typically lag up to 5 days so this is mostly just that a lot of backlog was reported the same 24 hours (yesterday afternoon and this morning). Number of deaths per day have been relatively stable since the beginning of April.

sorryitstrue 6y ago

I don't think this was a statistical statement, it's colloquial. We're not at the beginning, it's not right at the end, we're "in the middle"