3 ms·

I think the term multiplicative threw you off. It simply means that the R0 > 1. So a virus is contagious and will spread to increasing numbers of people in the

I think the term multiplicative threw you off. It simply means that the R0 > 1. So a virus is contagious and will spread to increasing numbers of people in the population. Contrast that with the R0 of a car accident. We can reasonably say it is close to zero or some might even say negative ;)

op03 6y ago
R0 is not static. It will come down as more social distancing/mask wearing - hospital/nursing processes improve day by day. Just remember the initial months numbers you base your projection on is not todays reality. No one was taking things seriously back then. Many deaths were because hospitals had no plan to handle overload. Today even Trumpers who are protesting for reboot are wearing masks. Things change. Hospitals and nursing homes are much better prepared. Most importantly just tracking covid deaths and forgetting about everything else leads to a Focusing Illusion - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... Look at Sweden in the table provided why do they have the least Excess Deaths even though they are following a different strategy?