Probably the closest comparison would be the US to the whole European Union. Similar sized population, a broad a mix of left/right leaning states, some more aff

Probably the closest comparison would be the US to the whole European Union. Similar sized population, a broad a mix of left/right leaning states, some more affluent than others, that are largely operating independently. About two weeks ago the EU was around 800k cases and 57k deaths, the US is there now and at 40k deaths - so maybe doing better, but possibly could have been a lot better if the Fed Gov had taken charge early. But we don't know precisely how many non-hospital deaths have occurred in either case. They estimated the UK was out by 40%, and Wuhan added 50% to their total recently.