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Mind-boggling that they are intellectual but idiots (IYI's in Taleb's terminology) still making the "but car accidents kill more people and we don't shutdown" a

Mind-boggling that they are intellectual but idiots (IYI's in Taleb's terminology) still making the "but car accidents kill more people and we don't shutdown" argument. Car accidents are not contagious and multiplicative. This simple point bears repeating and explanation. If I get in a car accident and then go home there is almost zero risk of me starting a contagion of multiple car accidents among my family, co-workers and community. Just repeat this over and over again to folks. Car accidents are not contagious and multiplicative. Car accidents are not contagious and multiplicative. Car accidents are not contagious and multiplicative. "The common flu is as ..." argument. Common flu is contagious and multiplicative but nowhere near as fatal. We are looking at 60,000+ covid-19 deaths with a near shutdown across the US. That death toll is near the high-end of a bad flu season. Just imagine what it would look like with business as usual.

op03 6y ago
Go and check the recovery rate graph. Whats happening there? Is it multiplicative?
- haltingproblem 6y ago
  I think the term multiplicative threw you off. It simply means that the R0 > 1. So a virus is contagious and will spread to increasing numbers of people in the population. Contrast that with the R0 of a car accident. We can reasonably say it is close to zero or some might even say negative ;)
  - op03 6y ago
    R0 is not static. It will come down as more social distancing/mask wearing - hospital/nursing processes improve day by day. Just remember the initial months numbers you base your projection on is not todays reality. No one was taking things seriously back then. Many deaths were because hospitals had no plan to handle overload. Today even Trumpers who are protesting for reboot are wearing masks. Things change. Hospitals and nursing homes are much better prepared. Most importantly just tracking covid deaths and forgetting about everything else leads to a Focusing Illusion - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... Look at Sweden in the table provided why do they have the least Excess Deaths even though they are following a different strategy?

op03 6y ago

Go and check the recovery rate graph. Whats happening there? Is it multiplicative?

haltingproblem 6y ago
I think the term multiplicative threw you off. It simply means that the R0 > 1. So a virus is contagious and will spread to increasing numbers of people in the population. Contrast that with the R0 of a car accident. We can reasonably say it is close to zero or some might even say negative ;)
- op03 6y ago
  R0 is not static. It will come down as more social distancing/mask wearing - hospital/nursing processes improve day by day. Just remember the initial months numbers you base your projection on is not todays reality. No one was taking things seriously back then. Many deaths were because hospitals had no plan to handle overload. Today even Trumpers who are protesting for reboot are wearing masks. Things change. Hospitals and nursing homes are much better prepared. Most importantly just tracking covid deaths and forgetting about everything else leads to a Focusing Illusion - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... Look at Sweden in the table provided why do they have the least Excess Deaths even though they are following a different strategy?