> That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previous similar ones was much of a leap of in

> That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previous similar ones was much of a leap of insight, and the article does seem a little too self-congratulatory over that. Having that realization back in January is evidence of foresight, but late March not so much. If this had been obvious to the Japanese authorities in late March they would have declared a nationwide state of emergency in late March, not late April. They would have issued stay at home orders for almost everyone 25 days ago, not five days ago. Being right when the government is wrong, it being wrong will cost lives and trying to get them to save those lives is not trivial. The doubling time of this virus is well under ten days. If lockdown had begun on the date this memo was published there would be under a quarter as many cases as there are now.