> Krajbich said the results of this study suggest that many times we will take the route that worked yesterday and ignore the evidence of what normally works be

> Krajbich said the results of this study suggest that many times we will take the route that worked yesterday and ignore the evidence of what normally works best. I think that this is an example of "Denominator Neglect" I read about in the book "The Organized Mind", by Levetin. There is a section about organized decision making for complicated decisions. Medical decisions is in this group. At the same time, for most uncomplicated decisions, his advice is just to be more decisive. Still, here are the basic steps that he outlined, I believe (from memory...): 1) Arm yourself with the best possible statistics about your procedure (things like NNT are good to know). 2) Understand your own biases. 3) Understand your own tolerance for regret. If a low chance of failure (5% or so) happens, can you ignore outcome bias? 4) If you still can't make up your mind, talk to your friends and family about your core values. He also talks about how to converse with your doctor, understanding the incredible quality of knowledge that they have, while understanding some of the gaps that they might have. I strongly recommend this book.