2 ms·
> I felt, while my subjective confidence was 90%, that I was likely miscalibrated. The likelihood that one non-expert, doing casual sleuthing in his spare time,
by AnonC 7y ago
> I felt, while my subjective confidence was 90%, that I was likely miscalibrated. The likelihood that one non-expert, doing casual sleuthing in his spare time, had scooped not just any expert but almost all the experts and almost all the parties in formal authority felt infinitesimally small.
So...was it just a coincidence that the results seem vindicated? Or is the above statement just too much modesty? Or both?
- AgentME 7y agoThere's a whole section at the end with his theories about why you could expect someone like him to get this better than the experts (the experts were too busy managing the intricacies of Plan A instead of constantly rigorously checking that its assumptions still held and whether it was time to give up and switch to Plan B, etc), and he makes a point against having too much modesty like he did if you have good data.