3 ms·
People are generally bad at probability without training, if you introduce random chance into any process it’s really going to throw most people. Also, it’s a
by Ensorceled 7y ago
People are generally bad at probability without training, if you introduce random chance into any process it’s really going to throw most people.
Also, it’s a black box. You try something and it gives you the best rewards. You try it again and it works again! Then it fails. Your immediate reaction is not “let’s run a long experiment and see what the p value is”, your reaction is “I guess it’s random”
- sova 7y agoConsider something simple and everyday like a test to see if you have <virus>. There is a true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative. It could be any one of the four. When we think that there are only two outcomes, we lose track of probability quickly.
- ska 7y agoYou can't really look at these independantly. There are lots of ways to slice up the results, you just to be careful and clear about what you are doing.
- Ensorceled 7y agoI know from actual experience that trying to explain why medical false positives can cause more harm than good to the layman is ludicrously hard.
- sova 7y agoAccept/Reject H0 truth tables should be commonplace placards in hospitals